The next two weeks may define Nvidia’s trajectory for the rest of the year. The chipmaker is juggling a quarterly earnings release, a newly opened door in China, and a keynote appearance at one of the industry’s biggest trade shows — all within a 14-day window. Investors are watching closely as the stock trades just below its all-time high.
A China Variable Comes Into Play
Just days before Nvidia reports its fiscal first-quarter results on May 20, the geopolitical landscape shifted. The U.S. government has granted licenses allowing the company to ship up to 750,000 H200 chips to roughly ten Chinese technology firms, including Alibaba. Analysts estimate the potential revenue bonanza at as much as $26 billion — a figure not yet fully baked into consensus estimates.
That changes the conversation around the earnings call. For months, China had been a drag on Nvidia’s outlook due to export restrictions. Now, management has a fresh catalyst to discuss. The market will be listening for concrete guidance on H200 deliveries and how the company plans to weave China back into its growth narrative.
Earnings Expectations Are Already High
For the quarter just ended, Wall Street expects revenue in the neighbourhood of $79 billion, with the data-centre segment contributing roughly $73 billion. Earnings per share are forecast at $1.75 to $1.77, while gross margins are seen settling between 74.5% and 75.2%. Some banks, such as UBS, expect even stronger numbers, forecasting revenue of $81 billion and a robust outlook for the current quarter.
The bar for the coming period is set at $86 billion to $87 billion in sales. The key question is whether Nvidia will raise that bar, especially with the China tailwind now visible. CEO Jensen Huang has previously pointed to more than $1 trillion in cumulative orders for Blackwell and the next-generation Vera Rubin platform through 2027.
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The PC Market Beckons
Only days after the earnings call, attention shifts to Taipei. On June 1, Huang will deliver a Computex keynote that is expected to unveil new laptop processors. That would mark Nvidia’s formal entry into the consumer PC chip market, where it would go head-to-head with Intel and AMD. The addressable market is roughly 150 million devices a year.
Later in the year, the Vera Rubin platform — the successor to Blackwell — is set to go into production. Cloud providers such as AWS and Google Cloud are already lining up to upgrade their data centres with the new architecture, which promises a sharp reduction in the number of graphics processors needed to train advanced AI models.
Stock Near Record Highs — But Nervous
Nvidia’s shares closed at €193.90 on Friday, down slightly for the day but still up roughly 20% year-to-date. On a 12-month basis, the gain swells to about 60%. The stock is hovering just below its record of around €201, reflecting both optimism and caution ahead of the earnings print.
Bank of America recently lifted its price target to $320, citing a total addressable market for AI data centres of $1.7 trillion by decade’s end. TD Cowen and Susquehanna both have targets of $275. The bullish thesis rests on the idea that AI inference — the everyday use of trained models — will sustain demand for Nvidia’s chips long after the initial training boom cools.
What to Watch for on May 20
The earnings release itself is only part of the story. Investors will be looking for any update on the Vera Rubin ramp, the new H200 China licenses, and the company’s ability to sustain gross margins as the product mix shifts. A strong outlook for the current quarter, combined with a clear signal on China, could be the catalyst that pushes the stock decisively past its record high.
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