The week that took Nvidia’s market capitalization past $5.7 trillion — surpassing silver as a global asset class — ended with a $170 billion reversal. The trigger was a classic geopolitical whipsaw. Washington approved the sale of H200 chips from the Blackwell generation to roughly a dozen Chinese technology giants, sending the stock to a record $236.46. But within hours, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed on May 15 that final import clearance rests with Beijing, and Chinese authorities are currently reviewing their own supply-chain security standards. The market quickly repriced the risk, wiping out the week’s gains and leaving the stock at €195.70 in Frankfurt — down 4.6% on Friday alone.
The diplomatic backdrop added a layer of drama. Jensen Huang joined President Trump’s official delegation to Beijing aboard Air Force One, alongside the CEOs of Apple, Tesla and Boeing. The signal to investors was unmistakable: Nvidia had the ear of the White House. Yet the subsequent regulatory uncertainty underscores how far the chipmaker is from actually delivering to potential customers such as Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com. In the first quarter, Nvidia’s share of China’s AI chip market had already shrunk to around 8%, as local rivals filled the void.
None of this has deterred Wall Street. A wave of target upgrades followed the China deal announcement, with the most aggressive coming from Cantor Fitzgerald at $350, arguing that Nvidia’s production for 2026 and 2027 is effectively sold out thanks to the boom in agentic AI. Wells Fargo raised its target to $315 (from $265) and expects AI computing capacity to more than double from 9.2 GW to 25.2 GW by 2029. UBS increased to $275 (from $245), forecasting Q1 revenue of $81 billion — $3 billion above the official guidance. Bank of America lifted its price objective to $320 (from $300), with analyst Vivek Arya now pegging the total addressable market for AI accelerators at $1.2 trillion. In a separate note, the same bank estimates the broader AI data-center market could reach $1.7 trillion by 2030, compounding at 45% annually.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
Financially, the company remains on firm footing. Last fiscal year, Nvidia generated free cash flow of nearly $97 billion. It still has $58.5 billion remaining under its existing buyback authorization. Reports have also surfaced that management is considering a new share repurchase program of up to $150 billion over the next twelve months — a potential agenda item that would further underpin investor sentiment.
All eyes now turn to May 20, when Nvidia reports results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. The consensus calls for revenue of roughly $78.8 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.77. Goldman Sachs believes an upside surprise of around $2 billion versus that consensus is plausible. Beyond the headline numbers, the key focus will be the production ramp of the Blackwell platform and the rollout of the next-gen “Vera Rubin” architecture, with server-rack mass production slated to begin in September or October.
For now, the stock has given back some of its post-China-deal euphoria, but the long-term thesis — driven by insatiable demand for AI infrastructure, a slate of analyst upgrades, and a potential $150 billion buyback — remains as dynamic as ever. The difference between a blowout earnings beat and further regulatory friction could determine whether the market cap reclaims $5.7 trillion or settles for a more modest climb from current levels.
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