Jensen Huang’s trip to China began with a phone call from President Trump and a last-minute seat on Air Force One. The Nvidia CEO joined Elon Musk and Tim Cook during a stopover in Alaska, part of a high-profile trade delegation aimed at prying open a market that has all but shut the door on the chipmaker’s newest products. The target: the H200 AI processor, for which US export licenses are already in hand but Chinese regulators continue to block.
The diplomatic gamble comes at a moment of breathtaking market momentum. Nvidia’s stock hit an all-time high of $227.16 on Wednesday, pushing the company’s market capitalization past $5.5 trillion. In euro terms, the shares traded at €193.84, rising 3.02% on the day. The valuation now dwarfs the combined market value of all German and UK equities, placing Nvidia economically ahead of almost every country except the US and China when measured by GDP.
Yet the China opportunity remains largely theoretical. Huang himself has described Nvidia’s current market share in the country as “effectively zero” as Beijing pivots toward domestic alternatives from Huawei and Alibaba. The potential prize, however, is enormous: a market that once accounted for up to 25% of data-center revenue, now estimated at $50 billion in addressable sales. Whether the Air Force One gambit cracks that door open remains uncertain—analysts caution that a fundamental shift in semiconductor trade policy is unlikely—but the direct involvement of top tech CEOs signals that serious negotiations are back on the table.
Wall Street has taken notice. Bank of America raised its price target on the stock to $320, maintaining a buy rating. Wells Fargo followed with a $315 target, citing sustained demand for AI infrastructure. Morningstar holds at $260, stressing Nvidia’s structural competitive advantages despite regulatory overhang. Of the 54 analysts covering the company, the consensus remains firmly at “buy.” The shares have gained roughly 20% since the start of the year and more than 66% over the past twelve months.
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The next catalyst arrives on May 20, when Nvidia reports fiscal first-quarter earnings. The Street expects revenue of $78.8 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.77. Within that mix, the data-center segment alone is projected to contribute around $73 billion, cementing its role as the primary growth engine. Cloud hyperscalers—Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet—have committed more than $500 billion in combined AI infrastructure spending through 2027, and the total addressable market for AI data centers is now pegged at $1.7 trillion by 2030.
Nvidia’s own product roadmap provides another layer of long-term visibility. The Blackwell architecture and the forthcoming Vera Rubin platform are together expected to generate cumulative revenues of $1 trillion by fiscal 2027. That kind of pipeline explains why Bank of America sees the company generating more than $400 billion in free cash flow over the next two years, building on last year’s $96.6 billion.
For now, the $5.5 trillion valuation rests on a delicate balance: the earnings report will show how strongly the core business is running without Chinese demand, while the Peking summit will reveal whether that demand can ever be rekindled. The delegation arrives on May 14 for a two-day summit, leaving just enough time for the market to digest the outcome before the numbers hit the tape.
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