Friday’s rout wiped 5.42% off Nvidia’s share price, dragging the stock to €178.08 and triggering fresh debate about whether the artificial-intelligence boom is running out of steam or simply catching its breath. The selloff, fueled by rising bond yields after a strong US jobs report, cut the chipmaker’s valuation to 12% below its 52-week high — yet it remains 45% above the year’s trough. That split personality is the crux of the argument: a painful valuation reset in an otherwise intact uptrend, or the first crack in the AI narrative.
The immediate technical picture offers no clear verdict. At €178.08, the stock sits a thin 2.11% above its 50-day moving average of €174.40, a level that has become the line in the sand for the coming sessions. The 100-day average at €165.70 and the 200-day line at €161.46 lie further below, and the 10% cushion to the latter suggests the medium-term trend remains structurally sound. But the relative strength index at 45.3 signals that momentum has evaporated — not panic, but certainly no impetus for a snap-back rally.
Adding a fresh layer to the debate is Nvidia’s RTX Spark, a superchip designed to run personal AI agents locally on Windows PCs. The company is partnering with Microsoft to build a native Windows environment for these agents, and major PC makers are expected to ship devices by autumn. This product thrust opens a second narrative beyond hyperscaler data centers: the idea that Nvidia can embed its technology into everyday consumer devices. If successful, it would reduce the stock’s dependence on a single spending cycle from cloud giants. The cautious read is that PC-based AI must still prove itself commercially — a €4.5 trillion company needs very large additional markets to move the needle meaningfully.
That macro pressure arrives this week in the form of the May consumer price index on June 10, followed by the producer price index on June 11. Both readings will shape rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 meeting, which also features updated economic projections. For a high-duration growth stock like Nvidia, the discount rate is a direct valuation lever. Softer inflation numbers could allow investors to look past Friday’s slide and return to the infrastructure build-out thesis. A hot print, by contrast, would make the €178 close look less like a bargain and more like a staging area for further volatility. The stock’s next move will likely be determined more by the bond market than by any company-specific news.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
China remains the persistent overhang. Nvidia explicitly excluded data-center revenue from China in its most recent guidance, and the company is shifting its reporting structure to separate Data Center from Edge Computing — the latter encompassing PCs, workstations, robotics and automotive. This segmentation helps investors see the strategic contradiction: the profit engine is the data-center business, but the market wants proof that edge and device AI can be more than a public-relations exercise. As long as China upside is not priced in, unlimited multiple expansion remains off the table.
The consensus price target of €258.67 implies roughly 45% upside from Friday’s close — a tempting number but not a near-term roadmap. The stock is 12% below its peak, and investors are demanding fresh confirmation. The critical zone is the tight band between the 50-day moving average at €174.40 and the Friday close of €178.08. A daily close back above the upper end would be the first positive signal, reopening the path toward the €202.50 high. A break below €174.40 would shift focus to the €165.70 area, then to the 200-day line at €161.46 — a test that would represent the deepest pullback in this cycle.
Nvidia does not need hype right now. It needs stability around those key averages. If the support holds, the selloff looks like a shakeout in a constructive pause rather than a trend reversal. The RTX Spark gives the market a fresh reason to think beyond the data center, but the inflation data on Tuesday will provide the first real stress test of the week.
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