Two fresh analyst endorsements landed this week just as Nvidia found itself caught between encouraging demand signals and renewed doubts about whether the artificial-intelligence buildout can justify its own revenue expectations.
UBS reaffirmed its buy rating on Friday, attaching a $300 price target, and pointed to Taiwanese export figures as evidence that underlying demand remains firm. The bank singled out Taiwan’s September exports of automatic data-processing equipment excluding laptops, which climbed to $29.8 billion — a 25.9% jump over August’s $23.7 billion. That reading offers a concrete counterweight to worries about how the AI infrastructure boom is being financed. Yet the data covers a broad product category rather than Nvidia alone, making it a useful proxy for capital spending rather than a direct measure of the chipmaker’s own sales.
Yorkville Ives took a different route to a similar conclusion. On Wednesday the firm initiated coverage of Nvidia with an outperform rating and the same $300 target, basing its case on the company’s position as the foundational computing platform for artificial intelligence. The two calls thus rest on distinct pillars — trade flows in one case, platform indispensability in the other — and while both paint a constructive picture, neither puts the recent demand skepticism to rest.
OpenAI Revenue Report Rattles the Sector
That skepticism resurfaced forcefully on Thursday, when technology and semiconductor stocks came under selling pressure following a Financial Times report on OpenAI’s revenue trajectory. The article put OpenAI’s annualized September revenue at roughly $50 billion, below the $68 billion figure previously signaled to investors. The disclosure thrust a central question into focus: are AI revenues keeping pace with the spending commitments being made across the industry?
Media accounts attributed the sector-wide selloff to the report, and Nvidia shed 2.9% on the day. The numbers concern OpenAI, not Nvidia’s own reported results, but the linkage matters for shareholders because the news revived concerns about AI demand and the infrastructure investment tied to it. Friday’s coverage described a noticeably cooler enthusiasm for AI positions in the wake of the revenue disclosure. Nvidia closed at €204.80, a level reflecting Friday’s market snapshot rather than any financial impact from a potential deal.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
Deals Still in Discussion, Not Done
Alongside the demand debate, several investment possibilities remain in play — none of them finalized. On Thursday, The Information reported, citing people familiar with the plans, that Nvidia intends to take a stake in AI chip developer d-Matrix. That report documents an intention, not a completed investment.
The Financial Times added yesterday that early-stage talks are underway regarding Reflection AI. According to the report, the options under discussion include a larger stake, an outright acquisition, or a structure combining a talent hire with technology licensing. Reuters could not independently verify the account, and no agreement has been announced. The distinction carries weight: an additional investment is not the same as buying the company, and an acqui-hire cannot be equated with a fully agreed takeover. Because the discussions are at an early stage, they offer no reliable basis for estimating financial consequences — and investors should not extrapolate a fixed transaction structure from the options described, nor credit Nvidia with added earnings on the strength of them.
Confirmed Commitments Stand Apart
Against those unconfirmed possibilities, Nvidia did announce something concrete on Thursday: $1 billion in commitments spread over five years for U.S. science and superintelligence research, spanning quantum computing, healthcare, and energy security.
The contrast is the point for anyone weighing the stock. The research pledges are confirmed and specific; the Reflection AI steps remain options on the table. Positive analyst views, strong export readings, and announced research funding all support the optimistic case — but none of them substitutes for Nvidia’s own business figures or for signed transactions.
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