Novo Nordisk closed the week at €43.95, shedding 2.42% on Friday — a modest pullback that snaps a 30-day rally of 15.69% and leaves the stock nearly 28% below its July 2025 high of €60.95. The dip comes despite a steady drumbeat of positive headlines: European approval for an oral version of Wegovy, a new lower-cost Ozempic copy for South Africa, and the long-awaited completion of a pivotal CagriSema study.
The week’s decline looks less like a change in sentiment and more like a breather. The relative strength index sits at 62.6, flirting with overbought territory but not yet there. More importantly, the share price remains above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signalling that the medium-term trend is still intact.
South Africa Entry Adds a New Revenue Leg
On 27 July, Novo Nordisk will launch Extensior, an authorised, lower-priced version of Ozempic in South Africa, in partnership with healthcare group Acino. The product uses the exact same active ingredient and manufacturing process as the original, but at a reduced price aimed at expanding access in a market where a grey market for GLP-1 drugs has flourished due to demand outstripping legal supply. The company plans to confirm the specific list price in the coming week.
EU Green Light for the Wegovy Pill
Just days earlier, on 15 July, the European Commission granted marketing authorisation for a 25 mg oral semaglutide tablet of Wegovy — the first GLP-1 receptor agonist approved in tablet form for weight management across the EU. The Commission also cleared a new 7.2 mg single-dose injector pen. The pill offers a needle-free alternative that has already proven popular in other markets: by early June 2026, Novo Nordisk had issued over 3 million prescriptions for the oral formulation.
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CagriSema: The Next Catalyst
While those regulatory wins broaden Novo’s product arsenal, the real market-moving event sits just beyond the horizon. The company confirmed on 16 July that its phase 3 study comparing CagriSema — a combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide — directly against Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide in type-2 diabetes patients has been completed. The core data are now locked and ready for analysis, meaning a formal publication could land at any moment.
This unblinded, year-long trial pits Novo’s two-drug strategy squarely against Lilly’s blockbuster at a time when the oral GLP-1 race is intensifying. Lilly is expected to release phase 3 data for its daily pill orforglipron later in 2026, potentially challenging Novo’s newly cemented lead in oral weight-loss therapies. Robust CagriSema results would reinforce Novo’s competitive moat and support a high-revenue entry into the diabetes and obesity market; weak numbers could redirect investor capital toward rival platforms.
Buyback Backdrop and Upcoming Earnings
The study readout arrives against a supportive capital-returns backdrop. Since 6 May 2026, Novo has been buying back B-class shares under a DKK 15 billion repurchase programme running until 1 February 2027, with around DKK 11.2 billion earmarked for the current tranche. Those buybacks, combined with the half-year results due on 5 August, will give investors additional touchpoints to assess the company’s financial health alongside the pipeline progress.
For now, the stock is consolidating above €43. The coming week will test whether that level holds, as the market digests the full implications of the Wegovy pill’s EU-wide availability, the pricing strategy for Extensior in South Africa, and — most critically — whether CagriSema can deliver the knockout data Novo needs to keep Lilly at bay.
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