A dramatic turnaround is unfolding for Novo Nordisk investors. After a punishing year that saw the pharmaceutical giant’s stock price nearly halve since January 2025, a pivotal regulatory breakthrough has ignited a powerful rally just before the year’s end. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted approval for Wegovy in pill form, a move that reshapes the competitive dynamics in the multi-billion dollar obesity market against arch-rival Eli Lilly.
Market Reaction and Strategic Shift
The approval of the first oral GLP-1 tablet for weight reduction triggered an immediate and forceful market response. On Tuesday, Novo Nordisk equity recorded its most substantial single-day gain since August 2023. This oral version offers a convenient alternative to the established injection, with clinical data indicating it can deliver comparable weight loss of approximately 16.6%.
This development represents far more than a simple product line extension for the Danish company. It is a critical bid to recapture momentum after a year of significant pressure on its share price. Despite the recent surge, the stock remains down about 48% for the year to date, underscoring the scale of the challenge and the importance of this recovery.
Gaining an Edge in a Fierce Rivalry
The competitive landscape has intensified in recent months, with U.S.-based Eli Lilly capturing market share from Novo Nordisk through its injectable treatment, Zepbound. The FDA’s decision now hands the Danish firm a valuable “first-mover advantage.” While a comparable tablet from Eli Lilly is not anticipated until sometime in 2026, Novo Nordisk is slated to launch its oral therapy in the United States this coming January.
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CEO Mike Doustdar emphasized a committed “all in” approach this time, stating the company has secured sufficient inventory—a stark contrast to the supply constraints that hampered the initial rollout of the Wegovy injection in 2021. Pricing forms another key part of the strategy. An agreement with the U.S. government will set the entry-level dose at $149 per month for patients covered by Medicare and Medicaid.
Analyst Perspectives: Potential and Caution
Market observers have largely welcomed the news but advise considering the longer-term outlook:
- Revenue Forecast: Analysts at Sydbank project the tablet could achieve peak annual sales of around $3.8 billion.
- Competitive Horizon: Experts from BMO Capital Markets caution that Novo Nordisk’s time advantage may be short-lived once Eli Lilly’s competing product receives approval.
- Target Patients: Bellevue Asset Management identifies significant potential among the estimated 10% of patients who have a fear of needles.
Despite the rally, the current figures provide a sobering context. The shares last traded at 43.94 euros. To reclaim its 52-week high of 87.10 euros, the stock would need to nearly double from its present level.
The U.S. market launch in early January 2026 stands as the first major test for this new strategy, following a year of difficult restructuring. Investors will be watching closely to see if the pill can capture market share rapidly enough to offset anticipated price declines across the GLP-1 segment. By the time first-quarter 2026 results are published, it should become clear whether this recovery has lasting power.
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