Novo Nordisk is playing a two-front war: advancing a new osteoarthritis candidate into late-stage trials while simultaneously racing to roll out its oral Wegovy pill across Europe. But the Danish drugmaker’s near-term profit outlook remains under a cloud, with a shrinking top line expected in 2026.
At the heart of the pipeline push is Zenagamtide, a subcutaneous injectable now being tested in the phase 3 AMAZE program. Study AMAZE 6 is actively recruiting patients with the dual aim of reducing body weight and relieving knee pain. Success would open up a vast new addressable market and help Novo Nordisk defend its 55 percent share of the weekly obesity injection segment. Beyond arthritis, the same drug is being studied in sleep apnea and for long-term weight maintenance.
Meanwhile, the oral version of Wegovy is generating momentum. Since its US launch in January 2026, prescriptions have topped two million, with the weekly rate exceeding 200,000 by mid-April. That dwarfs rival Eli Lilly’s Foundayo, which notched just 62,000 weekly scripts. The Wegovy pill does have a drawback — it must be taken on an empty stomach — but clinical data show significantly fewer gastrointestinal side effects, and Novo Nordisk claims patients on the competitor product are 14 times more likely to discontinue treatment.
The international rollout is now the priority. Emil Kongshøj Larsen, vice president for international business, has flagged a major launch push, with the first markets outside the US targeted for later this year. The European Medicines Agency is reviewing the application, and analysts see Britain, Germany and Denmark as the initial beachheads. To support demand, Novo Nordisk is pumping half a billion US dollars into a new Irish manufacturing facility.
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But the operational picture is far from rosy. The company expects currency-adjusted revenue and operating profit to decline between 4 and 12 percent in 2026 — a slightly less dire forecast than the prior guidance of minus 5 to 13 percent, but still a contraction. Citi analysts have kept a “Neutral” rating on the stock, nudging the price target up to 290 Danish kroner. They worry about falling diabetes drug prices in the US eroding margins, even as they see upside from the oral Wegovy pill, forecasting sales of $2.7 billion this year and a peak of $8 billion — well above consensus.
At a share price of around €38.70, Novo Nordisk’s stock has recovered about 12 percent over the past month but remains 35 percent lower on the year. It currently trades comfortably above its 50-day moving average.
Key catalysts lie ahead. On June 7, management will present fresh Zenagamtide data at the ADA conference. Then in the fourth quarter, the US Food and Drug Administration is due to rule on CagriSema. Both events could set the tone for the remainder of the year, even as the company navigates generic competition in emerging markets like India and Brazil and a persistent price squeeze in its core diabetes franchise.
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