The disconnect between Nokia’s operational momentum and its share price has rarely been starker. Over the past month, the stock has shed roughly 30 percent of its value, yet the company’s own executives have been snapping up shares at a notable clip, and S&P Global just upgraded its credit outlook. For long-term holders, the question is whether the market’s pessimism is a buying opportunity or a warning that the AI trade that fueled the rally has run its course.
A Management Vote of Confidence
The insider buying has been conspicuous. On July 24, three executives stepped in: Senior Manager Patrik Hammarén acquired 43,293 shares at a volume-weighted average price of EUR 8.44, board member Timo Ihamuotila purchased 60,000 shares at EUR 8.45, and Senior Manager Pallavi Mahajan bought 62,000 shares at the NYSE for USD 9.55 per share. Days later, Kristen Pressner and Mikko Hautala added 66,324 and 7,103 shares respectively at the Helsinki exchange, both at EUR 7.84 per share. All transactions were disclosed under Article 19 of the EU Market Abuse Regulation.
This pattern isn’t new. CEO Justin Hotard, who joined from Intel’s data center division, accumulated tens of thousands of shares in the spring, with directors and other executives following suit through the year. Market observers traditionally read such clustered buying as a signal that insiders expect higher prices — executives rarely put their own money on the line without conviction.
The Credit Side of the Story
The rating agency’s move on July 30 adds weight to the bull case. S&P Global lifted its outlook on Nokia from “stable” to “positive” while affirming the long-term issuer rating at ‘BBB-‘, citing successful business diversification and stable cash flow prospects. The driver is growing demand for network infrastructure from AI and cloud customers — a trend already visible in the numbers.
Second-quarter net sales to AI and cloud clients jumped 105 percent year over year, with order intake in the segment reaching EUR 2.8 billion. Management expects roughly half of those orders to convert into revenue within the next twelve months. The strength was broad-based, spanning both optical networking and IP networks.
Fundamentals Versus the Tape
The quarterly results, published July 23, beat expectations even as restructuring costs weighed on the bottom line. Nokia posted an operating loss of EUR 50 million due to accelerated restructuring charges, but comparable operating profit came in at EUR 434 million — comfortably ahead of the EUR 372 million analysts had penciled in. The network infrastructure division led the way with currency-adjusted net sales up 12 percent, including a 20 percent jump in optical networking.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
Management responded by raising full-year 2026 guidance, now expecting comparable operating profit between EUR 2.1 billion and EUR 2.6 billion, up from the previous EUR 2.0 billion to EUR 2.5 billion range. For the third quarter, Nokia projects net sales growth of 3 to 7 percent quarter over quarter, though it warns of flat operating profit due to the timing of software revenue recognition. A more pronounced earnings jump is expected in the final quarter.
A Chart That’s Oversold but Not Yet Stabilized
The technical picture, however, remains fragile. The stock closed Friday at EUR 7.93, down 0.15 percent on the day, sitting almost exactly on its 200-day moving average — a level often viewed as long-term support. The 14-day RSI stands at 33.3, a reading that classically signals oversold conditions. But the stock remains roughly 47 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 14.97, reached on June 3, and trades 29 percent under its 50-day average of EUR 11.21.
Annualized 30-day volatility has spiked to 68 percent, reflecting how jittery the market has become since the June peak. Long-term shareholders nonetheless sit on comfortable gains: from the 52-week low of EUR 3.45 on August 1, 2025, the stock has nearly tripled. On a year-over-year basis, Nokia is still up 121 percent, and 42 percent since the start of 2026.
What Comes Next
A dividend payment of EUR 0.04 per share arrives August 6, with the ex-dividend date having passed on July 28. The board’s decision came under the maximum distribution authorization of EUR 0.14 per share, leaving EUR 0.06 per share in remaining payout capacity.
The next earnings report isn’t due until October 21, when third-quarter results are released. Until then, the market will keep weighing the AI growth narrative that drove the spring rally against the sharp correction since June. The immediate test is whether the stock can hold above the 200-day average at EUR 7.93 — or whether the broader weakness in AI-related equities drags Nokia further down. With insiders buying and a credit agency turning more constructive, the pieces for a rebound are in place. Whether they’re enough to reverse the trend is another matter.
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