Shares of Newmont Mining have delivered a staggering performance over the last year, outpacing even major technology names like Nvidia with gains exceeding 180 percent. This remarkable ascent is primarily fueled by the price of gold, which recently hit unprecedented highs above $4,600 per ounce. The sustainability of this rally and the company’s ability to meet lofty expectations with its upcoming quarterly report are now key questions for investors.
The Gold Price Leverage Effect
The core driver of Newmont’s financial performance is a classic operational leverage effect. With the spot price for gold currently around $4,616 per ounce, it sits well above the company’s largely fixed production costs. This dynamic means that each incremental dollar from rising gold prices flows disproportionately to the net profit line, enabling substantial margins.
This potential has attracted significant institutional interest. For instance, Live Oak Investment Partners established a new position of 26,471 shares valued at $2.23 million during the third quarter of 2025. Overall, institutional investors hold nearly 69 percent of the company’s shares. However, the elevated valuation also introduces vulnerability; any sustained pressure on the gold price could trigger a swift correction in the stock.
Stellar Third-Quarter Earnings
The recent share price movement is grounded in tangible business results. For Q3 2025, Newmont nearly tripled its profit, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.71. This figure significantly surpassed analyst estimates of $1.27 and represents a 111 percent increase from the $0.81 EPS reported in the same quarter the previous year. Revenue also climbed, rising 20 percent to $5.52 billion and exceeding forecasts.
Key Financial Metrics:
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Newmont Mining?
- Q3 2025 EPS: $1.71 (32.6% above expectation)
- Q3 Revenue: $5.52 billion
- Expected Q4 EPS: $1.81 (a 29.3% year-over-year increase)
- Projected 2026 Annual Revenue: $21.6 billion
Market experts now anticipate this momentum to continue into the final quarter, with consensus projections pointing to a further rise in EPS to $1.81.
Diverging Views from Wall Street
In response to the strong gold price environment and improved margins, several investment banks have revised their price targets upward. Raymond James set a target of $130, UBS established a goal of $125, and Goldman Sachs issued a target of $123.90.
Nevertheless, not all analysts share this bullish outlook. Zacks Investment Research has assigned a “Sell” rating to the stock, citing near-term estimate revisions. The average consensus price target of $99.35 remains notably below the current trading level, highlighting a clear divergence of opinion on the stock’s future trajectory.
Newmont’s stock closed at $114.12 on January 16, 2026. The forthcoming quarterly earnings release will be a critical test, indicating whether the company can once again outperform expectations and if the gold price can sustain its current record levels.
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