Nel ASA’s shares have surged roughly 83% since the start of the year, touching a 52-week high of €0.36 in late May. The rally — which leaves the stock trading nearly 67% above its 200-day moving average of €0.21 — has been fuelled by a pair of catalysts: a landmark order from a US utility and a technology partnership with Samsung E&A that tackles one of green hydrogen’s thorniest hurdles. Yet behind the price action, the company’s order book tells a far grimmer story.
Nel’s first-quarter 2026 results revealed an order intake collapse of 73% year-on-year to just 85 million Norwegian kroner. Revenue from customer contracts slipped 5% to 148 million kroner, while EBITDA remained in the red at minus 100 million kroner — though that marked a 15 million kroner improvement from the prior-year quarter. The order backlog shrank 24% to 1.1 billion kroner, and management has warned that the current backlog is insufficient to meaningfully utilise capacity in 2027.
Cash reserves of 1.4 billion kroner provide a buffer through the end of 2026, but the company has already cut its headcount by 26% from its peak to around 300 employees. While that reduced personnel costs by 21%, management cautioned that the downsizing has also eroded manufacturing and project execution capacity.
The market’s optimism rests on two product launches aimed at turning the tide. In May, Nel commercially launched its new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform after more than eight years of development. The system, tested at the Herøya facility in Norway, is designed to cut investment costs by 40% to 60% compared with existing solutions. Nel is industrialising production at Herøya, targeting an initial capacity of 1 GW per year with a long-term goal of 4 GW. The European Union has pledged up to €135 million in support, with the first tranche of €11 million expected in the second quarter of 2026.
At the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam, Samsung E&A and Nel unveiled a packaged product called CompassH2-A+ based on that same pressurised alkaline technology. The solution delivers up to 100 MW via containerised 25 MW modules that cut floor space by roughly 50%. More important than the hardware, Samsung provides a single comprehensive warranty covering the entire plant — including the stacks. In a sector where warranties have traditionally been split among multiple parties, this bundled guarantee improves project bankability for developers and their lenders. CompassH2-A+ is the third product in the CompassH2 portfolio, joining atmospheric alkaline and PEM variants.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Separately, Nel received its first order from a regulated utility. Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state placed an order for PEM electrolysers from Nel’s plant in Wallingford, Connecticut. The utility plans to produce green hydrogen from surplus hydropower, avoiding the wear and tear of ramping turbines up and down during low-demand periods. Commissioning is scheduled for the first half of 2027.
Looking further ahead, Nel is developing a next-generation PEM stack targeting a roughly 70% cost reduction. Commercialisation is unlikely before 2028 or 2029.
Despite the activity, sell-side analysts remain deeply sceptical. Seven of the 13 analysts covering the stock recommend selling, and six advise holding. Not a single analyst rates the stock a buy. The average price target stands at 2.12 Norwegian kroner — about 45% below the current share price of around €0.35. Berenberg’s James Carmichael recently cut his target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner, citing persistently weak order intake. The disconnect between the market price and analyst expectations is unusually wide.
Insider sentiment, however, contrasts with the Street’s caution. Board chair Arvid Moss bought 100,000 shares in late April at an average price of 2.25 kroner — a roughly €75,000 bet on the company’s turnaround.
The next major inflection point comes on 15 July 2026, when Nel releases its half-year report. Investors will be watching closely to see whether the US utility order and the Samsung partnership have begun to translate into concrete bookings — or whether the rally has simply run ahead of reality.
Ad
Nel ASA Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Nel ASA Analysis from May 30 delivers the answer:
The latest Nel ASA figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Nel ASA investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from May 30.
Nel ASA: Buy or sell? Read more here...
