Nel ASA is heading into its third-quarter update with one question likely to matter more than another headline order: whether losses are still deepening. A new US contract gives the hydrogen company a concrete reference point, but it does not by itself prove that operations are stabilising. The market will get a fresh answer today, with the report for the third quarter of 2026 expected, although the timing is still listed as estimated and subject to change.
The consensus forecast points to revenue of 202.2 million NOK for the quarter. That would be a drop of 33.35% from the same period a year earlier. The backdrop is therefore demanding before investors even look at profitability, and it leaves little room for disappointment.
At the centre of the release is the loss per share. Analysts are expecting a figure of 0.063 NOK, compared with 0.050 NOK in the third quarter of 2025. In other words, the key issue is not just weaker sales, but a higher loss attributed to each share.
That matters because the latest order news only tells part of the story. Nel Hydrogen US has received an order worth around USD 12 million from an unnamed US technology company. The contract covers several containerised PEM electrolysers from the MC series along with related services, and the stacks are slated to be manufactured in Wallingford, Connecticut. The delivery is expected in 2027, and neither the number of units nor the total capacity has been disclosed.
The timing limits how much investors can read into it for the current business run rate. A contract with delivery in 2027 is a stronger sign of customer demand than a vague pipeline discussion, but it still does not say much about near-term earnings. The real test is whether Nel can pair that order book visibility with a less severe loss trend than analysts currently expect.
Yesterday’s 2.5% rise in the share price reflected the market’s initial response, not proof of a change in fundamentals. The same caution applies to the company’s fresh link-up with Rheinmetall. On Tuesday, the two groups signed a non-binding letter of intent to explore the technical and commercial feasibility of decentralised production of synthetic fuels. The work would combine Nel’s electrolyser technology with Rheinmetall’s Giga-PtX concept, but it remains an investigation rather than a binding order.
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For now, that distinction is crucial. The US contract is confirmed. The Rheinmetall agreement is not. It may broaden the potential use case for Nel’s technology if the review leads to further steps, but it cannot yet be treated as secured business.
The earnings backdrop adds another layer of pressure. In the second quarter of 2026, EBITDA came in at around minus 155 million NOK. That metric is not the same as earnings per share, but it does underline why order announcements alone are not enough to settle the investment case.
If today’s figures show that the loss per share comes in better than expected, or that management can point to a credible path for easing the loss burden, the latest contract wins may carry more weight. If the result confirms the anticipated deterioration, the market is likely to place greater emphasis on the gap between signed orders and actual financial improvement.
Nel will publish the third-quarter 2026 report today, with the release scheduled for 07:00 CET and the presentation set for 08:00 CET. Investors looking for a clearer read on the company’s trajectory will need to judge both the order intake and the economics behind it.
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