Nebius is no longer just a GPU middleman. The company has transformed into a full-stack artificial intelligence infrastructure builder, and the market’s reception has been electric: shares have nearly tripled since the start of the year. The latest catalyst came from Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang, who not only called Nebius a “world-class AI cloud provider” at the Computex 2026 trade show in Taiwan but also committed $2 billion of his own company’s capital to back that claim.
The Nvidia investment is meant to accelerate Nebius’s push toward five gigawatts of total capacity by 2030. In the nearer term, management has raised its target to more than four gigawatts of contracted power by the end of this year alone. To reach that goal, the company is building so-called AI factories — hyper-dense data centres designed for the most demanding machine-learning workloads — in Missouri and Pennsylvania. The Missouri site in Independence covers 400 acres and is expected to employ 1,200 construction workers during the build phase.
Those facilities will serve a ballooning order book. Nebius currently holds a backlog of roughly $45 billion, the bulk of which comes from a five-year contract with Meta Platforms and additional agreements with Microsoft. The Meta deal alone could be worth as much as $27 billion: $12 billion for dedicated GPU capacity and another $15 billion for unsold capacity that Meta may tap later. By offering bespoke infrastructure rather than shared cloud resources, Nebius hopes to carve out a meaningful slice of the hyperscaler-dominated market.
The strategy is already showing up in the financials. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue surged to $399 million — a 684 percent jump year over year. Net income reached $621 million, and the adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 45 percent. Those figures handily beat analysts’ expectations, which had penciled in a steep per-share loss. The cloud business alone generated a gross margin of 45 percent in the last quarter, and upfront payments for GPU reservations are helping to fund the capital-intensive expansion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Big institutional money is following the narrative. The hedge fund Situational Awareness LP, run by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has taken a 5.6 percent stake — roughly 12.4 million shares valued at around $3.3 billion. Geode Capital Management more than doubled its position in the previous quarter, increasing its holdings by over 1,000 percent. The so-called “neocloud” thesis — that specialised AI infrastructure providers can steal share from general-purpose clouds — is attracting deep-pocketed believers.
All that buying has sent the stock on a white-knuckle ride. The shares recently closed at €223.85, up nearly 35 percent over the past month and about 193 percent year to date. The 52-week high of €242.95, set on June 2, sits just 8 percent above the current level. Yet the rally is showing signs of strain: the relative strength index has climbed to 68, flirting with overbought territory, while the annualised 30-day volatility stands at a breathless 134 percent. The stock is trading more than 120 percent above its 200-day moving average, underscoring the momentum — and the risk.
Analyst opinions are split on how much further the run can go. BNP Paribas initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $255 price target, citing strong execution but limited upside relative to the 2026 annual recurring revenue outlook. Citi has set its target at $287, while Citizens is at $270 and Northland at $248. The company is also expanding its software capabilities through tuck-in acquisitions focused on inference optimisation and agentic search, aiming to deliver a complete AI platform that does not depend on any single hardware vendor.
Whether Nebius can maintain this breakneck pace will become clearer when it reports third-quarter results. For now, the combination of a $2 billion Nvidia endorsement, a massive Meta contract, and a growing roster of institutional backers has turned a former GPU reseller into one of the most closely watched names in the AI infrastructure space.
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