SpaceX is attempting two launches in a single day for the first time since its market debut, yet the company’s stock continues to struggle near levels not seen since its IPO. The juxtaposition of engineering ambition and market gravity has never been sharper: a Starship test using live Starlink payloads and a Falcon 9 mission for the US government are unfolding as shares trade below the initial offer price of $135.
At Wednesday’s close, the stock settled at €117.82, after touching a fresh 52-week low of €115.70 the prior session. That represents a 32.24% decline over the past 30 days and places the equity 39.41% below its June 16 all-time high of €194.46. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 39.2 – a zone that some technicians consider oversold – while the annualized 30-day volatility remains elevated at 95.62%, underscoring the jittery trading environment since the listing.
Behind the price action lies a financial picture that gives skeptics ammunition. SpaceX posted a net loss of roughly $4.94 billion in 2025 on revenue of $18.67 billion, with approximately $3 billion of that deficit channelled into Starship development. The market capitalisation, initially set at $1.78 trillion on June 11, has since contracted to an estimated €1.674 trillion based on current prices. This gap between operating performance and valuation has reignited debate about the IPO’s pricing.
Compounding the pressure is the imminent expiry of insider lock-up agreements. According to 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson, roughly 20% of restricted insider shares will become tradeable after the second-quarter earnings report, expected in early to mid-August. A further 10% block is tied to the stock trading 30% above the IPO price – a trigger that looks distant given the current levels. Additional tranches of about 7% each are scheduled to unlock in August, September and October. Notably, Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion shares are locked until June 2027, meaning the largest potential selling block remains years away.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Meanwhile, the engineering calendar adds its own weight. The 13th integrated test flight of Starship opens a 90-minute window from 17:45 local time at the Texas Starbase site, carrying Starlink V3 satellites for the first time. The FAA cleared the mission on Monday after concluding its investigation into the previous Flight 12 incident. Upgrades include modified engine ignition sequences and hardware improvements to the Super Heavy booster aimed at ensuring a controlled landing in the Gulf of Mexico. Each test flight matters more than ever for the investment narrative: since the IPO, the stock has lost nearly a third of its value as investors wait for Starship to demonstrate real revenue potential.
On the same day, a Falcon 9 rocket is lifting off from California’s Vandenberg Space Force Base with 21 communications satellites for the Space Development Agency. The mission – dubbed Tranche 1 Transport Layer – resumes a Pentagon expansion program that had been paused for nine months due to orbital-hardware problems.
Wall Street remains split over where the stock heads next. Deutsche Bank recently reaffirmed a $255 price target, calling Starship’s heavy-lift and satellite-deployment capabilities a long-term game changer. That would more than double the current share price. Yet other analysts caution that valuing a company whose most ambitious technology has yet to be commercialised is fraught with uncertainty, especially with a wave of insider supply about to hit the market.
The coming weeks promise no respite. The first quarterly report as a publicly traded company is due around the same time lock-up tranches start to unlock. Combined with the outcome of today’s Starship flight, the stock faces a concentrated stream of catalysts that will test whether the slide has been a buying opportunity or the beginning of a longer recalibration.
Ad
SpaceX Stock: Buy or Sell?! New SpaceX Analysis from July 16 delivers the answer:
The latest SpaceX figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for SpaceX investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from July 16.
SpaceX: Buy or sell? Read more here...
