On the same day Nvidia formally certified Micron as a supplier for its next-generation AI hardware, the memory maker’s stock suffered its worst single-day drop in months. Shares tumbled 12.16% to €755 on Friday, retreating from an all-time high of €938.70 reached just days earlier. The market’s message was clear: even a seal of approval from the world’s most influential AI company couldn’t insulate Micron from a broader tech rout.
Two catalysts converged to trigger the selloff. First, Broadcom delivered a cautious forward outlook and declined to raise its AI revenue forecast for 2026, casting doubt on the pace of infrastructure spending. That was enough to knock the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by more than 10%. Second, the U.S. jobs report for May came in hotter than expected at 172,000 new positions, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Some traders are now pricing in the risk of rate hikes by year-end — poisonous terrain for a stock that had surged roughly 180% since January.
The Nvidia relationship, however, remains a key structural anchor. CEO Jensen Huang confirmed in Seoul that Micron has been qualified to supply HBM4 memory chips for the upcoming Vera Rubin AI platform, with mass deliveries slated to begin in the third quarter of 2026. Industry sources caution, though, that the market share pie is unevenly divided: SK Hynix is expected to capture 60–70% of HBM4 volume for Vera Rubin, Samsung roughly a third, leaving Micron with the remainder. The certification validates the technology but underscores the competitive landscape.
All attention now pivots to June 24, when Micron will report results for its fiscal third quarter. Analysts are bracing for blockbuster numbers — consensus revenue stands at $33.88 billion with earnings per share of $19.29. That would mark an extraordinary acceleration from the $13.6 billion in revenue Micron posted just two quarters ago. The company has beaten earnings estimates eight times in a row, and the bar for the current report is set unusually high. The real focus, however, may fall on the fourth-quarter guidance. If management can project revenue above $40 billion, it would reinforce the narrative that the AI memory boom is still accelerating. A miss could trigger a painful sector-wide repricing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?
On the valuation front, the retreat has cooled some of the froth. The 14-day relative strength index has eased to 56.2, approaching neutral territory from extreme overbought levels. Yet the stock still trades more than 40% above its 50-day moving average of €533.47 — a sign that the correction may have further to run. Wall Street’s consensus price target of €641.72 sits roughly 15% below the current price, suggesting that even analysts who rate the stock a “Strong Buy” believe the recent rally overshot fundamental value. Looking ahead, the forward price-to-earnings multiple for the next fiscal year stands at 16, and rolling estimates out another year yields a single-digit multiple — a valuation that could prove compelling if earnings momentum holds.
Structural tailwinds remain intact. Micron has stated that its HBM production is sold out for the coming quarters, and analysts at DBS and Bernstein point to supply tightness persisting through 2027 and 2028. Meanwhile, the debate around Google’s TurboQuant technology — which could theoretically reduce memory demand in AI inference — has been met with a Jevons paradox argument: greater efficiency tends to drive higher overall consumption, not lower. The company’s annualised volatility of over 100% leaves plenty of room for sharp swings in either direction.
The coming fortnight will be quiet in terms of corporate news, setting the stage for a high-stakes earnings reveal. Should Micron guide above $40 billion for the fourth quarter, the recent pullback would likely be viewed as a buying opportunity in an extended uptrend. Failure to clear that threshold could force a fundamental reassessment across the memory sector. For now, the operative success story and the market’s punishing reaction remain at odds — a tension only the June 24 print can resolve.
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