The Franco-German tank maker KNDS is racing to lock down production capacity for its biggest-ever expansion, even as three separate logjams — a political tug-of-war in Berlin, a surprise cash offer from a Czech rival, and an auditor’s holdout — threaten to derail its planned summer 2026 stock market debut.
At the centre of the factory push is a potential €1bn investment in Mercedes-Benz’s Ludwigsfelde plant, where KNDS wants to build military vehicles including the Boxer armoured personnel carrier. The Bundeswehr is weighing a massive order for up to 3,000 Boxers, and KNDS needs the space to churn them out. Talks are ongoing, but the company also has a fallback: Volkswagen’s Osnabrück site, where car production is due to end in 2027. That option comes with complications, however, as Israel’s Rafael has already signed a preliminary agreement for the same facility.
The factory hunt is only one front in a broader struggle for KNDS’s future. The group — currently split 50-50 between the French state and the German Wegmann-Bode family — is heading for a dual listing in Paris and Frankfurt. But who controls the German side after the IPO remains unresolved. The family wants to sell its stake, and Berlin has made a formal offer for a 30% to 40% share. The defence ministry favours the higher end of that range, while the economy ministry and chancellery lean towards 30%. Even a smaller stake would carry weight: under Dutch law, a 30% holding could give Berlin a blocking minority on strategic decisions.
Into that delicate dance stepped the Czech ammunition maker CSG, which submitted an all-cash bid to the Wegmann and Bode families on 13 May. Analysts at Jefferies argue the offer is unlikely to succeed, citing the intense political sensitivity of KNDS for both France and Germany. Yet the very existence of the bid raises the stakes: if CSG gains a foothold, it could complicate Berlin’s plans to secure direct influence before the IPO.
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The most immediate hurdle, however, is an accounting one. PwC has yet to certify KNDS’s 2025 financial statements, pending the outcome of an internal probe into a historic deal with Qatar dating back to 2013. Preliminary findings have found no evidence of wrongdoing by current or former employees, but the final report is not expected until late May 2026. Without a signed audit opinion, no prospectus can be published, and the summer IPO window — CEO Jean-Paul Alary’s stated target of June or July — would slam shut, pushing the listing into autumn.
Investment bankers have already trimmed their valuation expectations, with the consensus now landing at €18bn to €20bn, a clear discount to rival Rheinmetall. Roughly a quarter of the shares are set to be placed, combining a capital increase with sales of existing stock. The proceeds are earmarked for further acquisitions and capacity investments — making the Ludwigsfelde deal all the more critical.
Operationally, KNDS enters the countdown on a strong footing. Its order book stands at a record €23.5bn, providing multi-year revenue visibility. But turning that backlog into deliveries requires factories, and factories require clear ownership of the German stake. Over the next few weeks, Alary must navigate the audit, the Berlin coalition wrangling, and the CSG bid — all while convincing investors that the production ramp-up can begin before the first trade. The margin for error is wafer-thin.
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