Jefferies raised its price target on Apple on Friday while leaving its “Underperform” rating untouched, a split verdict that lands just as the company’s first foldable phone reaches store shelves and a fresh batch of regulatory and legal headaches crowds the calendar.
Analyst Edison Lee nudged the target to $270.62 from $263.66, arguing the stock remains overvalued even as he anticipates a strong quarterly report. The near-term support he cites is pull-forward buying — customers snapping up devices ahead of announced price increases.
For the fiscal 2026 fourth quarter, which closed at the end of September, Jefferies projects revenue roughly 4% above the market consensus and earnings per share 5% ahead. Apple is due to report on Nov. 2 after the market close, with the analyst consensus sitting at $113.31 billion in revenue and $1.99 per share.
That upbeat forecast comes with an asterisk. Purchases pulled forward have to come from somewhere, and Lee warns that demand could thin out afterward — meaning a beat on the upcoming numbers would not by itself signal lasting strength. His attention is fixed instead on Apple’s guidance for the December quarter.
A Holiday Quarter Under Pressure
Jefferies sees far less wind at Apple’s back through the year-end period. The firm points to softer demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, with rising memory costs threatening profitability on top of that. Early interest in the foldable iPhone Duo, in the analysts’ view, is doing no better than meeting expectations.
The numbers reflect that caution: Jefferies models December-quarter revenue growth of 2% year over year, while earnings per share are seen falling 4%. Both figures sit below the respective consensus.
For investors, the takeaway is that unit sales tell only half the story — what matters just as much is how much profit each device delivers once higher component costs are absorbed. A revenue-rich holiday season would do limited work in settling the valuation debate if margins are slipping at the same time.
Lee’s wariness extends well past the immediate quarter. His earnings estimates for fiscal 2026/27 and 2027/28 sit 13% and 5% below consensus, respectively.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Apple?
Foldable Arrives Too Late for the September Books
The iPhone Duo went on sale in Apple Stores worldwide on Friday, priced at roughly $2,000 and available only in limited quantities, according to Reuters. Because the September quarter closed before the launch, the device cannot lift the results Apple is about to report — making guidance and commentary on supply capacity more telling than the backward-looking figures.
Long wait times, meanwhile, are not a clean read on demand. JPMorgan attributes them in part to difficulties ramping production. Adding to the uncertainty, heise reported Friday that some early buyers have found damage to the inner displays; the cause and extent remain unclear, and Apple has not commented publicly, according to the report.
The real test, then, sits in the outlook: Apple needs to show demand, ship reliably and defend its profitability. That is precisely where Jefferies’ skepticism bites, even with a beat expected for the quarter just closed.
Legal and Regulatory Fronts Heat Up
Beyond the earnings picture, Apple is juggling several external battles. On Thursday, the Federal Court of Australia ordered the company to allow competing app stores for Australian users, along with direct app distribution and alternative payment methods. The ruling takes effect March 1, 2027.
In the UK, the Competition and Markets Authority proposed measures on Wednesday aimed at lowering fees and dismantling technical barriers to contactless technology, steps Reuters reported are meant to boost competition with Apple Pay. Separately, a company that had already won a $5.7 billion patent-infringement judgment against Apple filed on Oct. 19 seeking additional compensation and interest from a federal judge.
Supply Deals and an Insider Sale
Apple, for its part, announced new and expanded partnerships with US suppliers on Tuesday covering the iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro. Among the commitments is a three-year purchase of up to $100 million in titanium from Perryman Company.
On the insider front, CFO Kevan Parekh sold 1,392 Apple shares on Oct. 16. A Form 4 filing shows the transactions were tied to tax-withholding obligations connected to the vesting of stock-based compensation.
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