ITM Power has laid out a path to narrower losses and rising revenue for the 2027 fiscal year, but the plan comes with a caveat that shareholders will feel directly: the company expects its cash pile to shrink. The guidance, published on 19 October, pairs operational progress with a continued drain on financial resources — a combination that leaves the hydrogen specialist still short of profitability even if every target is met.
The stock drew attention for a different reason on Friday, when it fell 10% on the day. No company-specific trigger for that move has been confirmed, and no link to the analyst criticism published beforehand has been established. What the decline does is throw into relief the gap between ITM Power’s growth ambitions and the execution risks hanging over hydrogen projects.
Revenue growth, but no break-even
For fiscal 2026, ITM Power reported revenue of £43.6 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of £20.2 million. Cash at the end of the fiscal year stood at £215.6 million, alongside a contracted order backlog of £144.0 million.
The 2027 outlook builds on those figures from several directions at once. Revenue is forecast at £50 million to £60 million — even the bottom of that range sits above the prior year’s reported total. The adjusted EBITDA loss is projected at £17 million to £20 million, an improvement on the £20.2 million recorded for FY26.
That entire target range is more favourable than the previous year’s result, yet it also makes clear that an operating deficit would persist even if the company hits its goals. Management is not promising a balanced adjusted EBITDA for the following fiscal year either. For investors, the distinction matters: an improved result is not the same as reaching the profit threshold. Revenue growth and margin improvement have to be read together, because top-line expansion alone would not erase the planned loss.
Liquidity: a smaller buffer by design
Cash is where the guidance gets tighter. ITM Power forecasts a balance of £170 million to £180 million for FY27, below the level at the close of FY26. The outlook therefore describes no transition to a loss-free business — rather a step-by-step improvement accompanied by a thinning liquidity cushion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
The order backlog cuts both ways. It represents future business, but it also carries the risk of actually converting orders into revenue. That is precisely where the latest analyst scrutiny landed, providing context for how the stock is valued without offering a proven cause for Friday’s slide.
Peel Hunt trims its target
Peel Hunt lowered its price target on ITM Power on 22 October from 92p to 88p, according to media reports. The brokerage pointed to the risk of slower hydrogen projects as well as uncertainty around execution and order conversion.
That assessment bears directly on how much weight the growth targets can carry. What matters is not only the revenue ITM Power is chasing but how reliably projects and orders turn into business. Company guidance and analyst caution are examining the same checkpoint from different angles: delivery on the expected growth.
Sheffield meeting is the next marker
On Tuesday, ITM Power announced a general meeting for 13 November in Sheffield and made its annual report for the completed fiscal year available. The gathering is the next concrete date on the calendar. The economic story, though, still hinges on converting the backlog, delivering the planned revenue growth and containing losses. A single day’s share-price drop on its own does not prove any change to those corporate forecasts.
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