The final piece of regulatory approval has clicked into place for ITM Power’s next-generation electrolyser production line, unlocking an £86.5 million funding package that marries state aid with strategic equity. But the news has done little to arrest the stock’s slide, which has now pushed the share price to within a whisker of oversold territory.
Britain’s Subsidy Control Authority has signed off on a £46.5 million grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, a subsidy first flagged in April but contingent on this go-ahead. Alongside the public money, Great British Energy is injecting £40 million as strategic equity, taking a roughly 10% stake in the company. All capital will flow into the so-called Chronos project at Bessemer Park in Sheffield, where ITM Power plans to build a highly automated production line for PEM electrolyser stacks rated at 2.5 MW each, targeting an annual capacity of 1 GW. The company says Chronos will cut energy consumption by 10% relative to the existing Trident platform and reduce manufacturing costs by 40%.
Just days after the regulatory clearance became public, a director of ITM Power purchased 172,000 ordinary shares — a vote of confidence from someone with a front-row seat to the numbers. Yet the market has not reciprocated the optimism. The stock closed at €1.32 on Monday, down roughly 2.2% from Friday’s €1.35 finish, and has shed about 10.5% over the past week. The 30-day decline stands at 10.86%, pulling the price 22.73% below its 50-day moving average of €1.71. The 14-day relative strength index has dropped to 40.6, edging toward the over-sold threshold that often attracts dip buyers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
The longer timeframes, however, paint a radically different picture. ITM Power has surged 82.63% since the start of 2026 and is up 46.25% over the past twelve months. The stock sits 103.86% above its 52-week low of €0.65 from February, a recovery that underscores how far it has come even as near-term momentum falters. At the other extreme, the distance from May’s 52-week high of €2.58 remains a yawning 48.76%. The annualised 30-day volatility of 106.38% marks one of the highest readings on the London market, and the market capitalisation of roughly €933 million reflects a valuation that swings violently on each piece of news.
That volatility is amplified by an unusually high share of retail order flow, a feature that has defined ITM Power’s trading patterns for months. Meanwhile, the analyst community remains sharply divided. Berenberg recently lifted its price target from 110p to 200p, and Morgan Stanley has upgraded its rating, pointing to growing institutional interest in the hydrogen space. But a material portion of the sell-side remains cautious, flagging execution risk and the uncertain timeline for converting big contracts into hard revenue. The order book has swelled to £152 million, with first-half revenue hitting a record £18 million and the proportion of profitable orders climbing from 60% in April 2025 to 71% now. Still, the remaining 29% of older projects must be delivered over the next 18 months, leaving the company’s critics unconvinced that the pipeline alone justifies the share price.
The single most important catalyst on the horizon is the final investment decision for the Cromarty hydrogen project in Scotland, which ITM Power expects to land in the second half of 2026. Until that arrives, the stock is likely to remain a play on binary outcomes — extreme daily swings punctuated by operational milestones that the market absorbs with cold indifference. The Chronos funding and the director’s purchase are the latest examples of that dynamic: meaningful steps forward that, for now, are not enough to shift the chart’s gravitational pull.
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