The timing could hardly have been more jarring. ITM Power announced a structured partnership with Protium Green Solutions to co-develop green hydrogen projects in the UK, led by the 15 MW Cromarty scheme in the Scottish Highlands. Investors responded by slashing the stock 7.4% in a single session to €1.41.
The sell-off was not an isolated reaction. Over the past seven days the shares have shed more than 31%, compounding a 28% decline over the preceding 30 days. With a relative strength index of 35, the stock is brushing the threshold of oversold territory — a sharp contrast to the euphoric 94% gain it had recorded year-to-date as recently as June.
Cromarty marks the first test of a new operating model
The Cromarty Hydrogen Project, which Protium recently acquired, already has government backing from the first UK hydrogen allocation round. Its planned 15 MW electrolyser capacity would produce roughly seven tonnes of green hydrogen per day at peak output. ITM Power will supply its PEM electrolyser technology, either via its own operator Hydropulse or through direct sales to Protium. The target for a final investment decision is December 2026, and phase 1 is expected to create around 30 local jobs.
CEO Dennis Schulz described the alliance as a fusion of complementary strengths, aimed at delivering competitively priced hydrogen with long-term economic sustainability. For ITM, the deal goes beyond a single project: it signals a shift from being a pure equipment vendor to a player embedded in the commercial architecture that makes projects financeable. Protium handles power procurement, permitting, infrastructure and offtake; ITM focuses on the hardware and potential operations.
The government is now a stakeholder in the narrative
The partnership lands at a moment when the state’s role in the hydrogen economy has become impossible to ignore. The UK government has framed its support around energy security, domestic manufacturing and industrial capacity rebuilding, with Great British Energy poised to become a shareholder in ITM Power. That transforms the investment case. The question is no longer solely when hydrogen demand will materialise, but whether the state can build the supply chain before private demand is mature enough to carry it alone.
A recent report from the Subsidy Advice Unit read almost like a diagnosis of the entire sector. It describes an emerging market plagued by coordination failures, hesitant investors and a classic chicken-and-egg problem: manufacturers avoid building capacity without committed customers, and customers hold off until supply feels secure. The report is not binding — it is a regulatory signal, not a blank cheque — but it crystallises the tension that investors are now pricing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
A chart divided against itself
The current price of €1.41 sits 45% below the 52-week high of €2.58 reached in late May. The 50-day moving average of €1.60 has been decisively breached. Yet the longer-term recovery structure remains intact: the stock still trades 134% above its 52-week low of €0.65 from February, holds above its 100-day moving average, and stands 52% above the 200-day average.
The annualised 30-day volatility of 97% tells the real story. This is not a quiet rotation of positions. A speculative stock is wrestling simultaneously with state backing, project optionality and execution risk — and the market is recalibrating expectations violently.
Credibility is not delivery
The Protium arrangement adds a crucial layer. ITM is now exploring both its build-own-operate model and direct sale of electrolysers to Protium, giving it multiple paths to commercialisation. That flexibility is more significant than it may appear. For years the hydrogen market has suffered from a structural mismatch: technology providers, developers, power procurement, permitting, infrastructure and end customers rarely converge at the same time.
By moving closer to the project architecture, ITM Power is trying to solve that coordination problem. But the market’s brutal reaction shows that political backing and partnership announcements are not treated as equivalent to delivered projects. At a market capitalisation of roughly €1.18 billion, the stock is no longer priced as an overlooked option on green hydrogen. It is priced as a company expected to play a meaningful role in the UK’s industrial policy experiment. That is both a compliment and a burden.
The next phase will not be decided by another government commitment to hydrogen. It will be decided by whether ITM Power can transform a politically attractive manufacturing story into a commercially repeatable one. If it succeeds, the current turbulence may look in hindsight like the entry price into an early industrial policy cycle. If it does not, the state-supported expectation that lifted the stock will make the disappointment all the sharper.
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