The past month has been a brutal test for ITM Power shareholders. After a stunning 115% rally from the start of the year, the shares have surrendered a substantial chunk of those gains — shedding more than 40% from the 52-week high touched in late May. At 1.48 euros on Tuesday, the stock has even breached its 50-day moving average, a level traders watch closely for directional clarity. The selling has been relentless, but the forces behind it are as much technical as they are fundamental.
A Rival’s Exit Shakes Sector Sentiment
One of the more surprising triggers for the latest leg lower came from Oslo. Håkon Volldal, the chief executive of Norwegian hydrogen competitor Nel, announced he is stepping down — and leaving the industry entirely. High-profile departures of this kind rarely go unnoticed, and the entire hydrogen complex felt the chill. ITM Power, frequently compared to Nel by investors, slid in sympathy as doubts about the sector’s path to profitability resurfaced.
That concern is hardly new. The clean hydrogen space has long been under scrutiny from investors demanding a shift from expensive R&D phases to real earnings. Volldal’s exit has simply poured fresh uncertainty onto an already nervous street.
Oil Steals Some of Hydrogen’s Thunder
Compounding the pressure, the broader energy landscape shifted in a way that worked against green hydrogen’s near-term appeal. A tentative ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, coupled with the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sent oil prices tumbling. Brent crude fell roughly 5% to $83 a barrel. Cheaper fossil fuels seldom help the case for costly green alternatives, and hydrogen stocks — ITM Power among them — took the hit.
Yet the sell-off has a distinctly technical flavour that goes beyond macro and sentiment. The stock’s inclusion in the MSCI UK Small Cap Index at the start of June triggered forced buying from passive funds estimated at $25 million to $30 million. Arbitrageurs who had positioned themselves ahead of the event promptly used that demand to exit. The result was a near-20% decline in the span of 30 days. Adding to the strain, the SpaceX IPO vacuumed up around $75 billion in capital, temporarily starving growth sectors like hydrogen of liquidity and attention.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Big Projects and a £46.5 Million Government Hand
Despite the market turbulence, the operational story has only gained texture. ITM Power formalised a strategic partnership with Protium Green Solutions to develop and operate industrial green hydrogen plants in the UK. The first focus is the Cromarty project in Scotland, aimed at decarbonising heavy industry. That sits alongside a government support package worth £86.5 million — £40 million in equity routed through Great British Energy and a further £46.5 million in grant funding for the “Chronos” project, a fully automated gigawatt-scale production line in Sheffield.
Management has backed up these ambitions with hard numbers. Revenue guidance for the 2026 financial year was raised to between £40 million and £43 million. The order book stands at £152 million, with roughly 71% of that expected to be profitable. The infrastructure build-out is also gaining pace elsewhere: a multibillion-euro green hydrogen project has launched in Ireland, and competitor Ballard Power has booked a new stationary fuel cell order. Demand on the ground, in other words, has not gone quiet.
Analyst Split and a German Bet That Could Tip the Scales
The divergence on Wall Street mirrors the tangled outlook. Goldman Sachs maintains a sell rating with a price target of 63 pence (around €0.75), arguing that the current valuation is detached from near-term profitability trends. Morgan Stanley sees it very differently, setting a target of 170 pence (roughly €2.02). The gap between those two numbers is a measure of the uncertainty hanging over the stock.
Outside the UK, ITM Power is quietly building a meaningful presence in Germany. Working with Stablegrid Group, it is supplying electrolysers for the so-called “Netzbrücke” projects — a pipeline of 710 MW designed to stabilise the German power grid by storing hydrogen in underground caverns. The first project, a 30 MW unit in Rüstringen, is approaching a final investment decision expected later in 2026. That decision could be a defining moment, testing whether international growth can narrow the chasm between Goldman’s bearish target and the stock’s current level — let alone the bulls’ more optimistic view.
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