A pivotal joint venture announced on November 19, 2025, between MP Materials, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and Saudi Arabian mining giant Ma’aden is being viewed as the primary catalyst for the company’s current valuation. This binding agreement to construct a rare earths refinery in Saudi Arabia represents a significant step in diversifying the global supply chain. The market is responding positively to this strategic move, which elevates the company’s profile far beyond its core operations at the Mountain Pass facility in California.
A Summer of Strategic Wins
The recent Saudi Arabian venture builds upon a series of major successes from the summer of 2025. In July, the company solidified its key role in U.S. industrial policy through two landmark agreements:
- DoD Investment: The Department of Defense committed to a $400 million preferred stock investment. This is coupled with a 10-year offtake agreement for neodymium-iron-boride magnets from MP Materials’ new manufacturing plant.
- Apple Partnership: Concurrently, a $500 million partnership with Apple was announced. Under this agreement, MP Materials will supply recycled rare earth magnets for Apple devices, providing strong validation for the commercial viability of its recycling technology.
Financial Fortitude and Market Momentum
Financially, the company is on solid ground. As of the third quarter of 2025, its balance sheet showed approximately $1.9 billion in cash and short-term investments. This substantial liquidity is crucial for funding its capital-intensive expansion strategy—transitioning from pure-play mining to refining and magnet manufacturing—without immediate dilution for existing shareholders.
Market data from the recent trading week underscores growing investor confidence:
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying MP Materials?
- Closing Price (Nov 28): $61.95
- Daily Change: +3.1%
- Year-to-Date Performance: A massive surge of approximately 187% to 200%.
Although the share price remains below the 52-week high of $100.25 marked in October 2025, the upward trend is clearly intact.
Analyst Confidence and Price Targets
Does this deal signal the start of a new rally? Financial experts appear convinced. BMO Capital Markets recently upgraded MP Materials to Outperform (Buy) and set an ambitious price target of $75.00. The rationale is clear: the company’s strategic value is increasing, while government-backed capital significantly reduces its growth risk.
The market is currently pricing in the long-term revenue security provided by the offtake agreements with the DoD and Apple. The primary focus now shifts to execution: Can the company successfully manage the simultaneous construction of its domestic magnet facilities and the new Saudi Arabian refinery without delays? The groundwork for a re-rating toward $75 has undoubtedly been laid.
A New Strategic Anchor in Saudi Arabia
This partnership positions MP Materials as a central player for the raw material security of allied Western nations. The contractual details reveal a clear power distribution and a risk-minimized financial structure:
- Ownership Structure: Ma’aden will hold the majority stake with at least 51%, while MP Materials and the U.S. entity are targeting 49%.
- Financing: The U.S. Department of Defense is providing non-recourse project financing for the American share.
- Operational Role: MP Materials will contribute its technical expertise in the processing and separation of rare earths.
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