When HSBC doubled its Intel price target to $200 earlier this month, the market had a curious response: it sold. The stock closed Friday at €96.26, down 2.23 percent on the day and nearly 12 percent over the past seven trading sessions. That divergence between analyst optimism and price action underscores the tension at the heart of Intel’s turnaround story.
Three converging headwinds triggered the sell-off. First, industry reports indicated that profitable yields on the company’s crucial 18A manufacturing process won’t arrive until late 2026 or even 2027 — a timeline that chips away at the foundry-centric narrative CEO Tan Lip Bu has built since taking the helm in March 2025. Second, AMD overtook Intel in data-center revenue for the first time in the first quarter of 2026, posting $5.8 billion against Intel’s $5.1 billion. Third, a broader semiconductor rout, sparked by Bank of America’s warning of a potential AI bubble and weak results from Samsung, added fuel to the fire.
Intel’s own data-center-and-AI unit still grew 22 percent year-over-year, but the loss of the revenue crown to its longtime rival registers as a symbolic blow. The stock now sits 22.73 percent below its 52-week high of €124.58, reached on June 30. Even so, the longer-term picture remains striking: the shares are up 186.45 percent year-to-date and have gained 372.67 percent over the past twelve months.
Foundry Hurdles and Deep-Pocketed Backers
The 18A process delay remains the most stubborn challenge. Intel is betting its entire transformation on becoming a world-class contract manufacturer, yet the foundry division continues to post significant operating losses despite a 16 percent revenue increase in the first quarter. To bridge the gap, the company has assembled a formidable group of backers. The U.S. government invested $8.9 billion for a 10 percent stake, Nvidia put in $5 billion for roughly 4 percent alongside joint product development, and SoftBank committed $2 billion. Rumors of a potential collaboration with Apple on simpler chips could further bolster foundry credibility, though such a deal would take two to three years to materialize.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Intel?
The market is pricing in near-perfect execution. Intel’s market capitalization stands at €495.13 billion, and the stock trades at more than 100 times expected earnings — far above the sector average. Analysts are split on the outlook. HSBC’s Frank Lee, the most bullish on Wall Street, doubled his target to $200, arguing the foundry business is “too good to ignore.” Stifel’s Ruben Roy raised his target from $75 to $120 but kept a “Hold” rating, citing server-CPU demand and process improvements. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $150 target. The consensus among analysts tracked by MarketBeat sits at $97.88 with an average “Hold” recommendation.
A Pivotal Earnings Report Ahead
All eyes are now on July 23, when Intel reports second-quarter results after the U.S. market close. Investors will scrutinize the 18A yield numbers and any updates on 14A milestones. The company’s next-generation “Coral Rapids” processor, targeted for mid-2028, is seen as a potential inflection point — but that is years away.
Technical indicators reflect the recent cooling. The relative strength index is at 42.9, and the stock trades 6.40 percent below its 50-day moving average of €102.84. Against the 200-day average of €54.67, however, it remains 76.07 percent higher. The 30-day annualized volatility has surged above 91 percent, a sign of the nervousness surrounding the name.
Analysts’ average price target of €88.30 suggests a further 8.3 percent downside from Friday’s close. The path from legacy chipmaker to national foundry champion runs through the hard realities of semiconductor manufacturing — and July 23 will test whether the narrative can withstand them.
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