Intel’s share price has been on a turbulent ride, marked by sharp declines and sudden recoveries. The catalyst for this volatility stems from a mix of disappointing corporate guidance and subsequent market speculation about potential alliances with industry titans. Investors, wary of the company’s stumbling core operations, are now closely watching its fledgling foundry business as a potential new engine for growth.
A Disappointing Forecast Shakes Confidence
The semiconductor giant’s latest quarterly report, released on January 22, laid bare its ongoing struggles. While fourth-quarter revenue for 2025 came in at $13.7 billion, surpassing analyst expectations, the forward guidance issued by management sent shockwaves through the market. Intel’s projection of a loss for the first quarter of 2026 triggered a dramatic sell-off. On January 23, the stock plunged 17% in its worst single-day performance since August 2024. Company executives pointed to persistent supply constraints and manufacturing hiccups as key reasons for being unable to fully meet customer demand.
Speculation Ignites a Rapid Rebound
The bearish sentiment, however, proved short-lived. Just days later, on January 28, reports surfaced that Intel was in discussions with sector leaders Nvidia and Apple. This news fueled a powerful recovery rally, lifting the stock by approximately 11%. The core of these rumors involves the potential fabrication of future chip generations within Intel’s manufacturing plants, known as its foundry segment.
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Specific details suggest Nvidia is evaluating Intel as a production partner for certain components of its planned “Feynman” GPUs, slated for 2028. According to these reports, Intel would manufacture specific parts using its advanced 18A or 14A process technologies, while the primary computing chip would continue to be produced by TSMC. Separately, Apple is also reportedly exploring options for the period beginning in 2027. This move is seen as driven by geopolitical uncertainties and capacity limitations at its primary Asian suppliers.
Market Experts Weigh In on Long-Term Prospects
These unconfirmed partnership talks have bolstered the narrative of a possible long-term turnaround for Intel. Ivan Feinseth, an analyst at Tigress Financial, recently assigned the company an ambitious price target of $66 per share. He identifies the rollout of Intel’s 18A manufacturing technology as the critical component for the firm to reclaim its position at the forefront of chip technology. Currently trading at $47.31, Intel’s equity has managed to post a gain of over 20% since the start of the year, despite the recent period of intense price swings.
A note of caution remains, however. The current euphoria is built on fragile ground, as the speculated deals have not been officially confirmed. Intel still faces the substantial task of resolving its operational challenges. The market’s next significant checkpoint will be the quarterly results expected in late April 2026, which should indicate whether the company is on track to meet its production milestones.
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