Intel shares encountered renewed pressure at the start of the trading week. The decline follows reports that Nvidia has halted testing of Intel’s pivotal 18A manufacturing node, casting doubt on the chipmaker’s ability to attract major external clients to its fledgling foundry business.
A Setback in the Client Race
The stock began its retreat on December 24. According to a Reuters report, Nvidia had been evaluating the possibility of manufacturing its own chips using Intel’s 18A process but decided against proceeding following the assessment. In the shortened holiday session, Intel’s stock fell approximately 2%, closing at $36.16.
This development represents a notable challenge for Intel’s foundry strategy. The 18A manufacturing technology is central to the company’s plan to compete with industry leader TSMC for third-party chip fabrication customers. Key details of the situation include:
* Both Nvidia and Broadcom have conducted tests of the Intel 18A process.
* Nvidia has chosen not to continue the partnership post-evaluation.
* Intel maintains that its 18A technology “is progressing well.”
* The decision underscores the persistent difficulty of securing leading-edge customers in the competitive foundry sector.
Market Analysts Adopt a Cautious Stance
The news has prompted a more guarded outlook from some market observers. Analyst Stephen Guilfoyle closed his long position in Intel following the reports, citing technical chart patterns. He notes a rising wedge formation since early August, which he interprets as a bearish reversal signal.
At Bank of America, analyst Vivek Arya continues to rate the stock as “Underperform,” with a $34 price target. Arya highlights an unfavorable cost structure within Intel’s foundry operations, which he believes is unlikely to improve markedly. He points to the slow internal adoption of the 18A node and estimates that peak utilization may not be achieved until 2030 or later.
The current analyst consensus, based on the views of 31 experts, stands at “Hold.” Price targets show a wide dispersion, ranging from about $20 to $52 per share, reflecting significant uncertainty regarding Intel’s future trajectory.
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Yield Transparency Remains a Concern
A critical unanswered question surrounds the manufacturing yield of the 18A process. Intel has not published specific yield data for this advanced node. During the Q3 2025 earnings call, CFO David Zinsner stated the yield was “sufficient to meet demand” but conceded the company was “not yet where we need to be to achieve the appropriate margin basis.”
This lack of clarity continues to weigh on investor sentiment. The upcoming Panther Lake and Nova Lake CPU generations, both scheduled for 2026, are poised to be the first major test for the 18A technology in high-volume production.
Capital Support and Competitive Reality
Intel’s transformation has garnered substantial financial backing. The U.S. government holds a stake of nearly 10% in the company. This is complemented by a significant investment from Nvidia, which announced a $5 billion position at $23.28 per share in September. While this capital infusion was intended to bolster confidence in a manufacturing comeback, Nvidia’s subsequent decision to halt 18A testing raises questions about how effectively this support will translate into foundry competitiveness.
Stock Performance and Forthcoming Catalysts
Intel’s share price has been volatile in 2025, trading within a 52-week range of $17.67 to $44.02. The peak was reached in early December. Despite recent declines, the stock remains up approximately 80% for the year, recovering strongly from lows around $20 at the start of 2025.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Intel has provided revenue guidance of $12.8 to $13.8 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share expected to be $0.08. The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly results on January 29, 2026. Upcoming commentary at CES 2026 in early January regarding Panther Lake and potential new foundry clients will likely serve as a key test for the credibility of Intel’s 18A roadmap.
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