The countdown to Grand Theft Auto VI has taken a contentious turn. As Rockstar Games prepares for its November 19 launch, the game’s physical edition will arrive in stores with a notable omission: no disc. Inside the box, buyers will find only a digital download code, a move confirmed by Rockstar’s support team over the weekend that has drawn sharp criticism from the gaming community.
Take-Two Interactive is saving heavily on production and logistics by eliminating physical media, but the real prize is the death of the secondhand market. Players can no longer resell or lend the title, which protects every sale as a full-price win for the publisher. The standard version has been raised to roughly $80, a $10 premium above the industry norm. Piper Sandler estimates that at the expected launch volume—45 million units, up sharply from the previous market consensus of 25 million—that extra $10 alone will inject an additional $450 million into Take-Two’s coffers.
Wall Street is largely unfazed by the backlash. Of the 32 analysts covering Take-Two, 30 rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. BMO Capital set a $285 price target on June 25, while Piper Sandler initiated coverage with an Overweight rating. Bank of America reaffirmed its buy signal and lifted its target to $368, with a focus on the longer-term potential of the next GTA Online multiplayer mode, which it expects to generate roughly $2.2 billion through fiscal 2028.
Pre-order data underscores the platform imbalance: PlayStation 5 digital pre-orders are outstripping Xbox orders by a ratio of 6 to 1, according to current tracking. Physical pre-order downloads begin on November 12, with the official launch following on November 19. The quarter capturing the release is already a major test. Analysts project revenue of $3.28 billion for that period, an 86% jump from the same quarter a year earlier, and EBITDA of $900 million—more than double the prior-year figure.
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A less discussed risk, however, lurks in the hardware supply chain. Both Sony and Microsoft have confirmed console shortages in the second half of 2026, driven by a scarcity of RAM components. Microsoft announced a second hardware price increase in a year, raising Xbox Series X|S prices by $100 to $150 starting August 1. Sony disclosed in its PlayStation annual report that component costs have become so elevated that the company risks a loss on each PS5 sold. For Take-Two, the impact is muted. GTA VI will be bought overwhelmingly by people who already own a console; the shortages primarily hurt Sony, Microsoft, and players without a machine.
BTIG sees the software opportunity as far larger than the market currently prices in. The bank estimates GTA VI will contribute roughly $10 per share to average earnings power across fiscal years 2027 through 2029. BTIG also forecasts bookings of $8.6 billion for fiscal 2027, well above the company’s own guidance of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion. The management has pegged record revenue above $8 billion for that year, a target buttressed by the aggressive pricing strategy.
Take-Two shares currently trade at around €211, just 1% below the €212 level noted in other reporting, and sit roughly 9% above their 50-day moving average. The analyst consensus price target is $295.60, with a Street high of $368. The relative strength index of 64.7 signals strong buying interest without tipping into overbought territory.
The real stress test comes with the next quarterly earnings release, when management will have to disclose concrete pre-order volumes. For now, the market is betting that anger over empty boxes and higher prices will not dent what is shaping up to be the biggest launch in video game history.
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