The narrative around Graphite One has long been straightforward: build a mine in Alaska, process the material in Ohio, and help the US break free from China’s grip on battery-grade graphite. But newly released lab results suggest the Graphite Creek project may carry a second, potentially lucrative, dimension that investors are only beginning to price in.
Independent analysis of garnet samples from the planned open-pit area has confirmed elevated concentrations of heavy rare earth elements. Magnet and heavy rare earths account for 85 percent of the total REE content detected. Dysprosium readings range from 32 to 63 parts per million, yttrium from 198 to 427 ppm, and scandium from 84 to 141 ppm. The samples were drawn from the same pit design outlined in the February 2025 feasibility study, meaning any REE extraction could theoretically begin alongside graphite mining from the earliest years of operation.
Graphite One plans to develop a test program with a US national laboratory to determine the most effective extraction method, with results expected in 2026. If the economics prove viable, the rare earths could materially improve the project’s overall returns — and that would come at a moment when the competitive landscape is tightening.
The geopolitical tailwind remains strong. China controls roughly 78 percent of global graphite production and an even larger share of the processing capacity for battery-grade material. Beijing imposed export restrictions on magnet rare earths in February 2024 and tightened graphite export controls later that year. The US, for its part, remains entirely dependent on imports for graphite used in batteries and energy storage, a vulnerability that has elevated Graphite Creek to a project of national significance.
But the path to production is far from clear. The project is advancing under the FAST-41 streamlined federal permitting process, with environmental reviews overseen by the Army Corps of Engineers and a target completion date of September 29, 2026. Graphite One confirmed in a recent update that the timeline remains on track. However, the company lost its exclusivity under FAST-41 in March, when two other US graphite projects — one in Alabama and another in New York — also received approval for the accelerated process.
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Local opposition presents a more immediate obstacle. During the Section 404 environmental permitting stage, 323 public comments were submitted, the vast majority negative. Communities in Teller and Brevig Mission have rejected the project, and their representatives have so far refused direct talks with the company. The mine would impact roughly 400 hectares of wetlands.
On the financing front, the US Export-Import Bank has raised its non-binding letters of interest to $670 million for the Alaska mine and $1.4 billion for the Ohio processing facility — up from $570 million and $325 million, respectively. Graphite One plans to submit formal applications in 2026, though final credit approval remains uncertain. The remaining 30 percent of capital costs are expected to be covered through five of North America’s largest investment banks.
The Ohio plant is itself a significant undertaking. Initial production of around 48,000 tonnes of anode material per year from synthetic graphite is slated to begin in 2028. Once Alaska-sourced material arrives, the company intends to scale capacity to supply more than two million electric vehicles annually by 2031. Graphite One also plans to seek FAST-41 status for the Ohio site.
The stock has shown signs of life recently. At the Canadian exchange, shares climbed nearly nine percent following the permitting update, and over the past month the equity has gained roughly 20 percent, trading at $0.85 — just above its 50-day moving average of $0.80. Still, that leaves the stock more than 44 percent below its 52-week high of $1.52, and down about 28 percent year-to-date.
The market’s focus now shifts squarely to the September 2026 deadline. If the Army Corps of Engineers delivers the final environmental permits on schedule, the targeted production start of 2030 moves within reach. If not, the rare earths in the garnet may become more than a secondary opportunity — they could become the project’s best argument for survival.
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