Gold is holding near historic peaks, trading around $4,746 an ounce on Thursday, yet the mood is far from celebratory. The precious metal has surged roughly 44 percent year-to-date, but its immediate trajectory hinges on a volatile mix of US economic indicators and persistent Middle Eastern tensions.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key support. President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, but plans for a second round of talks have failed. More critically, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have reportedly fired on cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, blocking this vital shipping lane. This instability continues to drive investors toward the safe-haven asset, helping it reclaim the psychologically important $4,750 level after a mid-week dip.
Counterbalancing this support is a resilient US dollar, buoyed by hawkish central bank commentary. The dollar index held firm above 98 points following testimony from nominated Fed chief Kevin Warsh, who struck an unexpectedly firm tone by demanding a new framework for fighting inflation and emphasizing central bank independence. Furthermore, high Brent crude oil prices above $98 a barrel have reignited inflation concerns, traditionally a dollar-positive environment that pressures non-yielding gold.
The market’s focus now sharpens on imminent US macroeconomic data. Thursday’s flash PMI readings for April and the weekly jobless claims figures are seen as the week’s most significant catalysts. Strong numbers would likely bolster the dollar and bond yields, pressuring gold, while weak data could have the opposite effect. This data is particularly crucial for calibrating positions ahead of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 28-29.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Goldpreis LBMA?
Market pricing suggests limited near-term upside for gold from monetary policy. According to the CME Group, the probability of an unchanged Fed rate stands at 99.5 percent, with the key rate expected to remain in the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range. Technically, the metal is navigating a critical zone. Support is seen around $4,646, with the $4,728 level offering a first line of defense. Resistance sits near $4,938, with the declining 55-day moving average around $4,924 acting as a key hurdle. A bullish breakout could target $5,321, while a bearish turn might aim for $4,255.
Underlying flows reveal a complex picture. March saw North American gold ETFs experience outflows of $13 billion, the largest monthly withdrawals on record and an abrupt end to a nine-month inflow streak. However, global trading volume recovered to an average of $525 billion daily, an 11 percent increase from the prior month. On the physical side, a significant shift is underway. Global central bank purchases plummeted to just five tonnes in January, far below the prior year’s monthly average of 27 tonnes. The buyer base is broadening regionally, with previously inactive nations like Malaysia and South Korea adding to reserves. Uzbekistan emerged as the largest buyer, while Russia’s central bank reduced its holdings, and China continued its steady accumulation unabated.
Despite short-term consolidation signals, such as a sideways-moving MACD indicator, major institutions maintain a constructive longer-term outlook. J.P. Morgan forecasts gold will average $5,055 in the fourth quarter of 2026, rising further to $5,400 by the end of 2027. Analysts at State Street peg their base year-end scenario in a range of $4,750 to $5,500. The metal’s resilience appears rooted not in panic but in strategic institutional positioning, which will face another test with Friday’s final University of Michigan inflation expectations report for April.
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