Gold is treading water near $4,745 on Friday, caught between a geopolitical ceasefire extension and a leadership vacuum at the Federal Reserve. The precious metal has shed roughly ten percent since hostilities erupted in the Middle East, yet the underlying picture tells a more nuanced story of institutional accumulation and shifting supply chains.
London Bound: Swiss Exports Signal Institutional Rebalancing
Behind the price action, a significant physical repositioning is underway. Swiss gold exports surged thirty percent in March, with 136 tonnes leaving the country. The standout destination was London, which imported 57.6 tonnes from Switzerland — nearly triple February’s 19.8 tonnes. That kind of volume suggests major players are funneling metal into the world’s largest trading hub ahead of what could be heightened volatility.
Central banks are adding to the buying pressure. After a quiet January, official sector purchases rebounded to 27 tonnes net in February, led by Poland, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Malaysia and South Korea are also rebuilding reserves. For the full year 2026, analysts project total central bank buying of around 755 tonnes — a figure that underscores the structural demand underpinning the market.
The Fed’s Power Vacuum
A peculiar institutional drama is compounding the uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires on May 15, 2026, but his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, remains stuck in the confirmation process. A Republican senator is blocking the nomination, citing an ongoing Justice Department investigation into Powell.
The timing is awkward. The next rate-setting meeting on April 28-29 will unfold in this leadership void. Warsh has signaled a tougher stance on inflation, calling for a narrower Fed mandate and a departure from unconventional policy tools. Markets have priced in just a 0.5 percent probability of a rate change in April, according to the CME Group. The message is clear: no one expects aggressive easing from a Warsh-led Fed.
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Oil and the Dollar Double Whammy
The Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to keep energy prices elevated, with crude holding above $103 a barrel. Iran has seized vessels in the strategic waterway, fanning inflation fears globally. Expensive oil feeds into a stagflation narrative that historically supports gold, but it also strengthens the dollar — currently trading at multi-week highs. A robust greenback makes bullion more expensive for non-dollar buyers, triggering selling pressure from Asia.
Technicals: A Narrow Corridor
Gold recently slipped below its 100-day moving average, but the $4,700 zone has emerged as a formidable floor. Rapid buying in that area confirms institutional interest. To the upside, resistance sits between $4,765 and $4,795. A clean break above that range opens the door to the next round number. Failure to push through would refocus attention on the $4,700 support, with a deeper pullback toward $4,576 if that level gives way.
What’s Next
Today’s University of Michigan inflation data could provide the next catalyst. Next week brings US purchasing managers’ indices and labor market figures, but the marquee event remains the April 29 Fed decision. Before the Middle East escalation, traders had penciled in two rate cuts for this year. Those expectations have all but evaporated, leaving gold to navigate a landscape where geopolitical risk and monetary tightening are pulling in opposite directions.
After the US close, Newmont — the world’s largest gold producer — reports first-quarter results. Analysts expect a significant profit jump, with investors focused on whether elevated gold prices have outpaced rising operational costs in the mining sector.
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