A four-week losing streak for the yellow metal came to an abrupt halt on Friday, with a surprisingly weak US jobs report and a wave of central bank buying combining to send prices sharply higher. Bullion closed the session at $4,187.30, reclaiming both the psychologically important $4,000 mark and its 20-day moving average in one decisive move. The daily gain of 1.23% also lifted the weekly performance to roughly 2%, though the monthly picture remains bruised with a 6.16% decline and a 25.58% gap from January’s record peak.
The catalyst for the reversal was the June US nonfarm payrolls report, which showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs. Economists had been looking for a figure in the range of 110,000 to 115,000. The miss sent shockwaves through rate expectations: markets now see a 53% probability of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, according to pricing in the derivatives market. The weaker hiring data effectively lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, providing the spark for the bounce.
Underpinning the rally is a structural demand force that shows no sign of easing. The World Gold Council reported net central bank purchases of 41 tonnes in May 2026. Poland added 18 tonnes, while China extended its buying streak to a 20th consecutive month, lifting its reserves to 2,331 tonnes. The council’s latest survey of central banks found that 45% of respondents intend to increase their gold holdings over the next twelve months — a record level that underscores the metal’s growing role in reserve management relative to assets such as US Treasuries.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
On the charts, Friday’s push above the 20-day line is seen as the first credible sign of a base forming. The next major target lies at the 50-day moving average of $4,415, but the zone between $4,200 and $4,300 represents the immediate resistance hurdle. A clean break above that band could open the door to the medium-term price targets set by major investment houses: Goldman Sachs forecasts $4,900 over the coming year, while JPMorgan sees gold averaging $4,500 in the fourth quarter of 2026. Downside support has been tested and held near $4,000, with the 52-week low of $3,901.30 still 7.33% below current levels. The relative strength index stands at 46.6, leaving the market in neutral territory.
The broader precious metals complex is also showing renewed strength. Silver jumped above $62, dragging the gold-to-silver ratio down to 66.9 — a signal that the recovery is gaining breadth beyond gold alone.
Looking ahead, the coming week will be pivotal. The Federal Reserve is due to release the minutes from its last meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, who has characterised inflation risks as diminishing. Combined with the ISM services purchasing managers’ index, the data will shape expectations for the next policy move. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank — which raised its key rate to 2.25% in June — will announce its next decision on July 23, adding another layer of currency divergence that could influence the dollar and, by extension, gold. How the metal navigates the 4,200–4,300 resistance zone in the coming sessions will likely determine whether this rebound has the legs to take it higher.
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