GE Vernova has delivered a substantial upgrade to its long-term financial framework, signaling a major shift in confidence from its leadership. The revised outlook presents a more aggressive trajectory for revenue, profitability, and shareholder returns, setting a new benchmark for the company’s performance through the end of the decade. This strategic pivot raises a pivotal question: can these bold new targets offset persistent challenges within its wind energy division?
Revised Financial Targets and Capital Allocation
The core of the update lies in significantly raised numerical guidance. The company now aims for $52 billion in revenue by 2028, a notable increase from its previous target of $45 billion. Profitability expectations have been lifted even more dramatically, with an adjusted EBITDA margin goal of approximately 20% by 2028, up from 14%.
Cash flow projections have been strengthened considerably. The free cash flow forecast for 2025 is now $3.5–4.0 billion, while 2026 is expected to generate $4.5–5.0 billion. Crucially, the cumulative free cash flow expectation for the period 2025–2028 has been raised to a minimum of $22 billion, a substantial jump from the prior $14 billion estimate.
In a direct move to return capital to shareholders, the board has authorized a doubling of the quarterly dividend to $0.50. The associated record date is January 5, 2026, with a payment date of February 2, 2026. Furthermore, the share repurchase program has been expanded to $10 billion from $6 billion. As of December 3, $3.3 billion of the prior authorization had already been utilized.
Operational Drivers and Persistent Headwinds
Management cites powerful tailwinds, including an accelerated global electrification trend and surging demand from data centers, alongside robust orders for gas turbines. Operationally, the company anticipates its order backlog will grow from $135 billion to around $200 billion by the end of 2028. The Electrification segment is projected to double its backlog from $30 billion to $60 billion. For gas turbines, 18 GW of contracts have been reported year-to-date, with leadership targeting approximately 80 GW in total slot reservations and backlog by year-end.
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However, the wind business remains a significant concern. For 2025, GE Vernova forecasts a high single-digit organic revenue decline for the segment alongside EBITDA losses of roughly $400 million. Similar pressures are anticipated for 2026. Company executives have identified cost control, improved project execution, and streamlining the project pipeline as key levers to improve results in this area.
Market Reaction and Future Credibility
The market response has been mixed, reflecting both optimism over the raised targets and caution regarding execution. Following the announcement, shares initially surged but later gave back some gains. Analyst adjustments varied: JPMorgan set a high price target of $1,000, while Seaport Global downgraded the stock to a Neutral/Hold rating. In a separate development, S&P upgraded GE Vernova’s credit rating to BBB with a positive outlook.
In terms of recent performance, the equity last closed at €570.00. It has gained approximately 72% since the start of the year and trades just under 8% below its 52-week high.
Moving forward, the credibility of this new guidance will be tested on several fronts. Investors will closely monitor the company’s ability to stabilize profitability in its wind operations and deliver on the promised cash flows and backlog growth. Key milestones include the dividend payment in February 2026 and the achievement of the 2028 targets for revenue, margin, and backlog.
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