After a prolonged period of market correction, Figma shares are attracting renewed investor attention. A combination of recent operational milestones—including surpassing an annualized revenue run rate of $1 billion, robust sales expansion, and meaningful adoption of its new AI tools—is prompting a reassessment of the company’s equity story. This analysis explores the catalysts supporting the stock and the hurdles that could still impede a lasting re-rating.
Operational Momentum and AI Adoption
The company’s latest quarterly results demonstrated clear revenue momentum, with sales reaching $274.2 million. This represents a 38% year-over-year increase and officially pushes Figma’s annual run rate above the $1 billion mark. A critical driver of this growth is the company’s newer AI-powered products, such as “Figma Make” and “Figma Sites,” which are already seeing significant uptake among its larger client base.
According to company data, approximately 30% of its highest-value customers (those with an Annual Recurring Revenue exceeding $100,000) are using these AI features on a weekly basis. Furthermore, this segment exhibits a Net Dollar Retention rate of 131%, indicating that existing clients are expanding their seat counts and adopting higher-tier product offerings. In an environment of generally cautious IT budgeting, these metrics serve as a positive signal for customer loyalty and upsell potential.
Market Sentiment and Forward Indicators
The volatile trading since Figma’s initial public offering has reshaped its valuation profile. Market analysts now price the company at roughly 18 times its estimated 2025 sales, bringing it closer in line with comparable software peers like Snowflake or Datadog. This suggests a portion of the previous premium valuation has already been eroded.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Figma?
In the near term, however, the stock remains susceptible to swings. Technical indicators point to an elevated volatility range, and the market environment following lock-up expirations has been turbulent. Two specific forward-looking metrics, highlighted by Figma’s own management, will be pivotal for the next phase of valuation:
– For the fourth quarter, the company anticipates revenue between $292 million and $294 million (implying growth of approximately 35% at the midpoint).
– The full-year target for the non-GAAP operating margin stands at 18%.
Current Market Snapshot: The share price is €34.20, trading approximately 67% below its 52-week high. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 26.2, a level that typically suggests oversold conditions in the short term.
Conclusion: Strong fundamental performance and widespread user acceptance of AI features make a partial valuation reset appear justified. Whether this evolves into a sustained re-rating, however, hinges squarely on upcoming quarterly results and margin progression. If Figma meets its revenue and margin targets by mid-March 2026, a more stable valuation level is likely to be supported. Should guidance fall short of expectations, the stock could face renewed downward pressure.
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