BASF is reportedly prepared to revisit the terms of its approach to Evonik, but only if the two sides can be brought to the negotiating table first. According to Reuters, the Ludwigshafen-based group is considering a higher financial offer alongside concrete commitments to workers, including guarantees for production sites.
The Essen specialty chemicals maker has so far turned the overture down flat, calling it inadequate and confirming that no talks are currently underway. The Financial Times reported that a figure of EUR 22.15 per share had been under discussion, valuing Evonik at roughly EUR 10.3 billion.
Investors greeted the prospect of a revised bid warmly. Evonik shares climbed 1.1% to EUR 21.30 on the day, touching a fresh 52-week high of EUR 21.52 during the session. The advance extends a run that began about a week ago, when the RAG Foundation’s board convened to discuss BASF’s interest; since then the stock has added 3.7%, sitting just below its annual peak of EUR 21.26 at one point.
Analysts See Room Above the Rejected Figure
Few in the market now regard EUR 22.15 as the final word. Sebastian Bray of Berenberg believes a range of EUR 24 to EUR 25 per share is plausible should BASF formally raise its bid. Citi has also run the numbers on a scenario built around a EUR 25 offer.
That said, sector watchers caution that a sustainable valuation above EUR 22 looks demanding without an industry-wide recovery to lean on. The cyclical backdrop in European chemicals remains a constraint that no takeover premium can fully offset.
A 43% Stakeholder and a Restive Region
No deal can proceed without the blessing of the RAG Foundation, which holds just over 43% of Evonik and ranks as its largest shareholder. Beyond the foundation, opposition is hardening on two fronts. Trade unions and North Rhine-Westphalia’s state government have made clear that jobs and the company’s independent development must not be put at risk. Evonik employs 11,000 people in the state alone, including 850 apprentices.
Meanwhile, the company is pressing ahead with its own restructuring. Management intends to cut 3,200 positions by 2029, of which 2,150 will fall in Germany. Whether BASF’s willingness to offer site and employment guarantees proves sufficient to bring the foundation and Evonik’s board to the table now hinges largely on the size of any follow-up bid.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Parmantier’s Cautious Call
Not everyone is positioned for further gains. René Parmantier of Parmantier & Cie. rated the stock “Hold” on October 6 with a price target of EUR 20.50, pointing to the restructuring, capacity rationalization and selective consolidation reshaping the European chemicals sector.
His concern cuts to the heart of the current setup: if BASF walks away in the face of resistance, the consolidation premium evaporates. Without a binding offer, the market would have to value Evonik purely on its operating earnings prospects in a cyclical industry — and a sharp pullback would be the logical outcome.
The company’s own case for independence rests partly on its specialized technologies. Recent progress in its pharmaceutical operations underscores capabilities that could serve as leverage for a richer premium in any negotiation, even as management publicly champions staying solo.
What to Watch Next
For now, the stock’s ability to hold near its highs keeps the probability of a firm offer as the dominant theme. Should the speculation unwind — through a BASF withdrawal or a veto from the ownership structure — pressure would build quickly.
The next hard data point is already circled: Evonik publishes its third-quarter report on November 3, 2026. Those figures will show how sturdy the operating foundation is, independent of the takeover maneuvering. Until then, the EUR 22.15 question — and whether Ludwigshafen blinks first — remains the market’s central preoccupation.
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