Ethereum finds itself in a precarious position, hovering around the $3,000 threshold just days before one of the most significant technical upgrades in its history. This delicate balance emerges as the network prepares for the Fusaka upgrade on December 3rd, designed to substantially increase capacity. Paradoxically, this comes amid a concerning trend: Ethereum’s most steadfast investors are liquidating their holdings at an accelerated pace. The fundamental question facing the market is whether Ethereum is on the verge of a major breakout or a severe downturn.
A Stark Shift in Investor Sentiment
Market data reveals a startling development. Between November 22nd and 28th, entities known as Long-Term Holders—addresses that typically provide market stability—dramatically increased their selling activity. The volume of ETH sold surged from an initial 334,600 to nearly 973,000 within a mere six-day window, representing a staggering 191 percent increase. This sell-off reached a localized peak on November 26th, with a massive 1.1 million ETH being offloaded.
This capitulation by long-term investors signifies more than a statistical anomaly; it indicates a fundamental shift in market psychology. The very investors who have historically supported Ethereum through various market cycles are now retreating. This sentiment is corroborated by Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change metric, which remained deeply in negative territory throughout the entire month of November.
Network Activity Defies Selling Pressure
Despite the exodus of long-term holders, the Ethereum blockchain itself is demonstrating remarkable strength. On November 27th, the network processed 1.893 million transactions, marking a substantial 48.36 percent year-over-year increase compared to November 2024. Furthermore, the average transaction fee has stabilized at just $0.30, a clear testament to the enhanced efficiency brought by previous upgrades like Dencun.
The decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem on Ethereum is exhibiting similar resilience. Although the Total Value Locked (TVL) has declined from $178 billion to $123 billion since October—primarily due to asset price depreciation rather than capital flight—decentralized exchanges are processing record volumes. A staggering $360 billion was traded between November 1st and 26th alone, surpassing the total volume for the entire month of June. Leading lending protocol Aave maintains a TVL of $32 billion, double its value from a year ago.
The Fusaka Upgrade: A Technical Leap Forward
Scheduled for activation on December 3rd at 21:49 UTC, the Fusaka upgrade combines Execution-Layer enhancements dubbed “Osaka” with Consensus-Layer updates named “Fulu.” The technical improvements are significant: Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS) is projected to increase blob data capacity by a factor of eight. The standard gas limit will rise to 60 million, and the block size will expand to 10 MB.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ethereum?
Additional throughput increases are already scheduled for December 9th (BPO1) and January 7th, 2026 (BPO2). The separate EIP-7918 update is also expected to stabilize blob fees and ensure more consistent fee-burn mechanisms.
However, historical precedent suggests caution against unbridled optimism. While past upgrades like the Beacon Chain launch and the London Fork were associated with price surges of +600% and +85% respectively, macroeconomic factors such as Bitcoin’s price action, ETF inflows, and the broader economic environment have historically played a more dominant role in price discovery. Technical excellence alone does not guarantee a market explosion.
A Compelling Valuation Disconnect
A new valuation dashboard from Hashed CEO Simon Kim presents a striking conclusion. Based on twelve distinct valuation methodologies, ETH’s fair value is estimated at approximately $4,869—more than 62 percent above its current trading level. Metcalfe’s Law suggests an even higher fair value of $9,869, while discounted cash flow (DCF) analyses based on staking revenues point to $8,995.
Only two of the twelve metrics—the price-to-sales ratio and the earnings yield—hint at potential overvaluation. From a technical analysis perspective, Ethereum is trading within a descending triangle pattern but has established solid support near $2,781. A hidden bearish divergence in the RSI observed between November 18th and 28th, however, signals weakening upward momentum.
The coming days are critical for Ethereum. The Fusaka upgrade could serve as the catalyst for a decisive trend reversal, or its technical promise could be overshadowed by the persistent selling pressure from long-term holders. With the price teetering at $3,000, the stakes extend far beyond a psychologically important price level.
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