Eli Lilly & Company has delivered a powerful finish to 2025, surpassing market expectations and issuing a 2026 forecast that exceeded even the most bullish projections. This performance, which propelled the company’s shares upward by more than 10%, underscores its growing dominance in the lucrative weight-loss and diabetes drug market, even as competitor Novo Nordisk shows signs of strain.
Financial Performance Exceeds Estimates
For the fourth quarter of 2025, the pharmaceutical giant reported revenue of $19.3 billion, representing a substantial 43% year-over-year increase. This figure came in well ahead of the $17.96 billion consensus among market analysts. Earnings per share stood at $7.54, also decisively beating the estimated $6.67.
A significant 46% surge in product volume was the primary growth driver, partially offset by a 5% headwind from lower realized prices. The bottom line was a net income of $6.6 billion, marking a 50% jump compared to the same period a year earlier.
Key Products: Mounjaro and Zepbound
The company’s twin blockbuster GLP-1 therapies were central to its outperformance:
- Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for diabetes generated global sales of $7.41 billion, more than doubling year-over-year with 110% growth.
- Zepbound (tirzepatide) for obesity achieved U.S. revenue of $4.3 billion, a dramatic 122% increase.
Both drugs comfortably exceeded analyst forecasts, which had pegged sales at $6.63 billion and $3.41 billion, respectively.
Confident Guidance for the Year Ahead
Looking forward, Eli Lilly’s management has set a revenue target for 2026 between $80 billion and $83 billion. This range sits above the average analyst expectation of $77.62 billion. The company’s projected earnings per share of $33.50 to $35.00 also tops the consensus estimate of $33.23.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Eli Lilly?
This outlook implies an anticipated revenue growth rate of approximately 25%. The forecast presents a stark contrast to Novo Nordisk, which anticipates its 2026 sales will contract by 5% to 13%.
Navigating Pricing Dynamics
Chief Financial Officer Lucas Montarce acknowledged that pricing pressures would continue to present a challenge, likely dampening growth in the low-to-mid double-digit percentage range. He cited three contributing factors: a government agreement on obesity medications, adjusted direct-to-patient pricing, and reduced Medicaid pricing for older products. However, management expects robust demand growth to largely counterbalance these effects.
Potential Catalyst: Orforglipron Awaits FDA Verdict
A significant near-term catalyst could emerge in the second quarter. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is scheduled to decide on the approval of the oral weight-loss drug orforglipron in April. Should it receive the green light, Eli Lilly plans a U.S. launch within the same quarter, with an international rollout following in 2027.
The company has set a price of $399 per month for higher doses for self-pay patients. This positions the therapy at a premium to Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy, which is priced between $149 and $199.
Eli Lilly’s market capitalization has now surpassed the $1 trillion threshold, making it the first pure-play pharmaceutical company to achieve this milestone. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the firm can deliver on its ambitious forecasts and how the FDA rules on its latest drug candidate.
Ad
Eli Lilly Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Eli Lilly Analysis from February 6 delivers the answer:
The latest Eli Lilly figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Eli Lilly investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from February 6.
Eli Lilly: Buy or sell? Read more here...
