Eli Lilly and Company enters the new trading week with significant momentum from a pivotal development in China. This comes after its shares experienced a seven-day decline, shedding approximately 9% from their November peaks. The catalyst is the inclusion of its drug Mounjaro in China’s national reimbursement catalog, a move with the potential to reshape the competitive landscape of the GLP-1 market.
Analyst Confidence and Upcoming Catalysts
Despite recent share price softness, research analysts maintain a bullish outlook on the pharmaceutical giant. Several firms have raised their price targets: BMO Capital increased its target to $1,200 from $1,100, Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $1,290 from $1,171, and Bernstein boosted its target to $1,300 from $1,100. The consensus among 18 covering analysts remains a “Strong Buy,” with an average price target around $1,063—roughly 5% above the current trading level.
The near-term calendar holds additional potential catalysts. From December 9th to 12th, Eli Lilly is scheduled to present multiple studies on its breast cancer portfolio at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium. Investors will also be closely assessing how the newly secured reimbursement status in China impacts the company’s medium-term revenue projections.
Oncology Pipeline Shows Promising Data
Beyond the high-profile GLP-1 business, Eli Lilly’s oncology division reported positive clinical progress. The cancer therapy Jaypirca successfully met its primary endpoint in a direct Phase 3 head-to-head study against Imbruvica, an established multi-billion dollar therapy for leukemia and lymphoma. Furthermore, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has expanded the approved use of Jaypirca.
China Reimbursement Opens Vast Patient Access
The decision by China’s National Healthcare Security Administration represents a major commercial breakthrough. Effective January 1, 2026, Mounjaro (tirzepatide) will be covered under the state insurance system for patients with Type-2 diabetes, granting Eli Lilly access to a massive new patient pool.
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Inclusion on the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) substantially improves affordability and availability for China’s 1.4 billion residents. Analysts at Macquarie Capital anticipate that Mounjaro will capture market share from competitors Novo Nordisk and Innovent Biologics. The competitive pressure was felt immediately, with shares of Innovent Biologics falling 8% on the news.
Mounjaro only launched in the Chinese market in January 2025, whereas Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic has been available there since 2021. Ozempic generated $898.5 million in sales in China during 2024. Although the new reimbursement is specifically for diabetes, industry observers expect significant off-label use for obesity treatment. However, this development is also projected to exert downward pricing pressure on the entire GLP-1 drug class in China.
Strategic Price Reductions for Zepbound
Concurrent with its China expansion, Eli Lilly implemented a strategic price reduction for its obesity medication, Zepbound, via its LillyDirect platform on December 1st:
- The 2.5 mg starter dose was lowered to $299 per month from $349.
- The 5 mg dose was reduced to $399 from $499.
- Higher dosage strengths were cut to $449 from $499.
This pricing strategy accepts lower revenue per patient with the strategic aim of accelerating market adoption and strengthening relationships with payers.
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