Deutsche Telekom’s underlying business is firing on all cylinders, yet its stock is barely ticking over. The Bonn-based telecoms giant delivered first‑quarter numbers that would normally cheer investors – organic revenue climbing to nearly €30 billion and adjusted EBITDA advancing 7.5% to €11.5 billion. Management responded by lifting the full‑year outlook, targeting adjusted EBITDA of roughly €47.5 billion and free cash flow above €19.8 billion. But on the Frankfurt exchange the shares have been drifting around the €26 mark, within striking distance of their 52‑week low of €25.71 and well below the 200‑day moving average of €28.89.
Two distinct forces are pinning the stock down. The first is the imminent expiry of a share buyback programme that has been a reliable source of demand. The second tranche, worth up to €550 million, ends on 30 June; since early April the company has scooped up more than 15 million of its own shares. From July onwards that steady bid will vanish, leaving the market to absorb any selling pressure on its own. The technical picture already looks stretched – the relative strength index sits at 30.8, deep in oversold territory.
The second, more disruptive headwind is the swirling speculation around T‑Mobile US, Deutsche Telekom’s most valuable asset. A report in the Wall Street Journal that the US unit may be reshaped has been compounded by fresh signals from Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Company president Gwynne Shotwell recently confirmed ambitions to build a terrestrial mobile network in the US, and TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams argues that buying T‑Mobile US would be the logical next step if SpaceX cannot secure its own roaming agreements. Wolfe Research’s Peter Supino goes further, floating the idea that SpaceX could make a bid for the whole of Deutsche Telekom to gain a direct foothold in Europe. No official confirmation has emerged from any party, and CEO Timotheus Höttges has declined to comment. The German government has dismissed the chatter as pure speculation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
That uncertainty is weighing heavily on Deutsche Telekom’s stock while its US subsidiary has actually been rising. For the parent, the risk is existential: T‑Mobile US supplies the bulk of group earnings, and any change in its ownership would upend the entire capital structure.
Until the next scheduled catalyst – second‑quarter results due on 6 August – the narrative will be driven by the buyback vacuum and whatever news leaks out of the US. For now, a solid operational base and an upgraded forecast are not enough to lift the shares off the floor.
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