The market has spoken, and it wants more Nvidia debt. When the chipmaker took its first trip to the bond market since 2021, it originally aimed to raise $20 billion. Investors responded with orders totalling $85 billion, forcing the company to upsize the offering to $25 billion across seven tranches, the longest maturing in 2056.
The proceeds are earmarked for general corporate purposes, including repaying existing borrowings — a pragmatic move given Nvidia’s already hefty $13 billion cash pile. Management justified the fresh leverage by pointing to the enormous capital requirements for AI chip production, a signal that the company remains in full-scale investment mode.
Shares gained more than two percent on the day of the announcement, though they have since settled back to around €183. That puts the stock roughly ten percent below its May all-time high of €202.50. Over the past twelve months, Nvidia has delivered a 46 percent return, and year-to-date the gain stands at about 13 percent. The 200-day moving average of €162.50 sits well below the current price, suggesting the longer-term uptrend remains intact.
Wall Street sees further upside. The consensus analyst target of €257.45 implies a 40 percent premium to current levels. But that bull case comes with a caveat buried deep in the financials: China remains a ghost market for Nvidia’s most advanced chips.
Washington has granted licenses to roughly ten Chinese companies — including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com — to purchase Nvidia’s H200 processors, with each approved buyer allowed up to 75,000 units. Yet on the latest earnings call, the CFO made an uncomfortable admission: the company had secured permission for small quantities of H200 products for Chinese clients but had not booked a single dollar in revenue. His exact words were “we do not know whether any imports will be allowed into China.” Beijing appears to be dragging its feet, partly because a Trump-era deal would funnel 25 percent of chip revenue back to the US — a security risk in China’s eyes.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
Nvidia’s market share in China has effectively collapsed. Jensen Huang conceded in April 2026 that it is now “practically zero” — a stunning fall from the roughly 95 percent the company once commanded in the country’s advanced AI chip space. As recently as fiscal 2025, China contributed around 13 percent of total revenue. Now Chinese AI budgets are flowing to Huawei and domestic suppliers, with cities like Hangzhou offering subsidies for companies that run AI models on local silicon.
Strangely, the China void has barely dented Nvidia’s global dominance. The company still controls an estimated 85 to 92 percent of the AI accelerator market, leaving AMD and Intel stuck in single digits for training workloads. The next architectural leap — Vera Rubin — is already in the field. The first rack is running at Microsoft Azure, with full production deliveries slated for the second half of 2026. Nvidia claims the platform can cut inference costs by up to ten times per token versus Blackwell and train mixture-of-experts models with four times fewer GPUs.
The threat from custom silicon designed by hyperscalers is real: Amazon, Google and Microsoft are all building their own chips, and their combined market share is expected to climb from roughly 21 percent in 2025 to nearly 28 percent in 2026. Yet those same companies remain Nvidia’s biggest customers — a structural contradiction that has so far resolved in the chipmaker’s favour.
For now, the market is in wait-and-see mode. The relative strength index sits at a neutral 51.5, and the stock trades barely three percent above its 50-day moving average of €177.93. Annualised 30-day volatility of 42.33 percent underscores just how heavily every geopolitical headline gets priced in. Huang accompanied President Trump on a state visit to China in May 2026, hoping for a breakthrough on H200 deliveries. The goodwill was there. Confirmed shipments: none. China is less an existential threat to Nvidia than a persistent drag — a market that once contributed 13 cents of every revenue dollar, now effectively zero, but with the theoretical potential to reopen at any time. That optionality remains the unresolved variable in the stock’s story.
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