D-Wave Quantum investors are riding a dizzying rally built on two contradictory data points. First-quarter bookings for 2026 hit $33.4 million — a staggering 20-fold increase from a year ago, propelled by a $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University and a $10 million service deal with a Fortune 100 client. Yet revenue cratered to just $2.86 million, missing analyst estimates by 45% and tumbling 81% from the prior year. The per-share loss of $0.05 came in narrower than the $0.08 consensus, but the top-line collapse has left the bull case hanging by a thread.
The real catalyst for the stock’s 60% weekly surge to €25.21 was a government lifeline. D-Wave signed a non-binding agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for $100 million in CHIPS Act funding. The catch: the government receives D-Wave shares of equivalent value, a structure that dilutes existing holders. The money will support quantum computing development across sites in Florida, Connecticut, and Canada. But the deal is already drawing political fire. Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren has questioned whether the CHIPS Act — originally designed for semiconductor R&D — can legally back quantum projects, and she has flagged potential conflicts of interest involving a former IBM executive involved in negotiations. IBM itself is slated for $1 billion from the same program, while rivals Rigetti and Infleqtion each received $100 million.
Institutional investors appear undeterred. Axxcess Wealth Management nearly doubled its position to roughly 60,000 shares, and institutions now control about 42% of the float. But insider sentiment tells a different story. Vice President Sophie Ames sold about $437,000 worth of stock on May 20 at an average of $18.98 per share under a pre-arranged trading plan. She still holds nearly 600,000 shares, but the timing of the sale amid the rally has raised eyebrows.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?
Technically, the stock is flashing warning signals. The relative strength index sits at 70, the classic overbought threshold, and the annualized 30-day volatility stands at 144%. D-Wave’s shares remain about 33% below their 52-week high of €38.48, suggesting the rally still has room to run — or to reverse. Analysts have set a consensus target equivalent to roughly $34, with some estimates reaching $43.
All eyes are now on D-Wave’s first investor day on June 1 at the New York Stock Exchange. Management is expected to provide updates on finalizing the CHIPS Act funding, the integration of recently acquired Quantum Circuits Inc., and a technology roadmap stretching to 2032. For a stock that has nearly doubled on promises rather than profits, the event will be the next major test of whether the quantum hype can outlast the financial reality.
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