The Prague-based ammunition and defence group CSG is navigating turbulent terrain from two fronts at once. On one side, Berenberg has slashed its price target after a mixed first quarter, deepening the stock’s slide. On the other, UBS has launched a block of turbo put warrants that gives traders a leveraged way to bet against the shares — a move that underscores just how bearish sentiment has become.
The stock closed at €15.60 on the day of the warrant issue, down more than 14% over the past week and a staggering 57% below the 52-week high of €36.05 set at the end of January. The distance to its 50-day moving average of €19.92 now exceeds 22%, confirming the weakness is structural rather than a temporary blip. The relative strength index of 33.7 points to oversold conditions, but a sustained bounce has yet to materialise.
Berenberg’s revision followed what the bank called a mixed first quarter. Revenues for CSG rose 13.8% year-on-year to €1.544bn, while operating EBIT climbed 8.7% to €372m, producing a margin of 24.1%. The order backlog swelled to €17bn, up from €15bn at the end of 2025, and the contract pipeline reached €27bn. On the surface those numbers appear solid, but the market is scouring the mix beneath them.
The main drag is the Ammo+ segment, where the US commercial business was weak through most of the first quarter before demand picked up late in the period. The company has invested heavily in capacity and staffing there, expecting margins and revenue to improve as the year progresses. By contrast, the large-calibre unit performed well. In-house production capacity for artillery and tank ammunition topped 800,000 rounds at quarter-end, and the company is targeting around 850,000 rounds of internal production by the end of 2026, up from 550,000 a year earlier. Long-range munitions are set to account for more than half of artillery sales.
Management is standing behind its full-year guidance. CSG expects 2026 revenue of between €7.4bn and €7.6bn and an operating EBIT margin of 24% to 25%. Net debt to EBITDA should finish the year below 1.3 times. The market will get a proper test of whether those targets are achievable on 7 August, when the half-year results are released.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying CSG?
That is the same date UBS’s new derivative product will be in full circulation. The bank has issued up to 10 million open-end turbo put warrants on CSG N.V., listed on Euronext Amsterdam. The initial base price and knock-out barrier are both set at €18.70, with an issue price of €0.17 per warrant and a multiplier of 10:1 (0.10). The offering is aimed at Germany, Austria and Luxembourg.
A turbo put is a leveraged instrument that gains value when the underlying stock falls. If the settlement price ends up at or above the base price, the warrant is left with a minimum payout of just €0.001. UBS states that the proceeds are for its own general corporate purposes — there is no capital flow to CSG, and the product should not be confused with a company fundraising effort.
The timing aligns with the stock’s recent volatility. The 30-day annualised volatility on CSG shares stands at 80.26%, providing fertile ground for tactical traders and hedgers alike. What the warrant offering does is add another layer of tradable short exposure to a stock already under pressure from analyst caution.
For now, the path of the shares hinges on two parallel tracks: whether CSG can demonstrate that its guidance is underpinned by stronger cash flows and a better segment mix, and how many market participants choose to amplify their bearish bets through the new UBS product. Until the August numbers land, the balance remains distinctly tilted to the downside.
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