The Czechoslovak Group is leaning hard into a two-pronged strategy to shake off the reputational damage inflicted by a critical short-seller report earlier this month: a concrete expansion into Ukraine and a blowout first-quarter earnings release. Investors have responded with cautious optimism, pushing the stock up roughly 14% over the past week, though the shares still trade deep below both their IPO price and the 52-week high.
On May 21, CSG confirmed that a production line for 155mm artillery ammunition in Ukraine is nearing start-up. The facility is a joint venture with the Ukrainian government: CSG handles technical preparations and licenses for the two high-explosive shell types — the M107 and L15 — while Kyiv manages the organizational side. The company said the site sits in a low-risk zone to ensure operations can continue despite the ongoing conflict, though a firm date for first deliveries has not yet been set.
The project is part of CSG’s broader capacity ramp-up. The group aims to produce around 100,000 rounds in 2025, rising to more than 300,000 by 2026. Across all its European plants — in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Spain, and Italy — total annual capacity stands at roughly 630,000 units. That last figure was the target of scepticism from Hunterbrook Media, the short seller whose May 4 report questioned how much of that volume is genuinely manufactured in-house versus merely re-exported. CSG has denied the allegations.
The earnings release on May 20 gave the stock a more immediate lift. Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 hit €1.544bn, up 13.8% year on year, while operating EBIT rose 8.7% to €372m, translating into a margin of 24.1%. More telling for the long-term outlook, the order backlog swelled to a record €17bn from €15bn at the end of 2025, with an additional €27bn in the negotiation pipeline. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of between €7.4bn and €7.6bn in revenue and an operating margin of 24–25%.
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The Defence Systems segment drove the bulk of the growth, with revenue climbing 26.5% to €1.251bn. Land Systems surged 82.8% to €173m, and medium- and large-calibre ammunition rose 22% to €1.049bn. The Ammo+ segment, however, remained a sore spot, with revenue falling 20.5% to €291m. Geographically, Europe (excluding Ukraine) accounted for 49% of Q1 sales, Ukraine for 21%, and the United States for 16%; NATO countries collectively took 64%.
The stock’s recovery has been real but incomplete. After plunging to a 52-week low of €15.73 on the day the Hunterbrook report hit, the share price clawed back around 14% over the following seven trading sessions. On Friday, it gave back 3.4% to close at €18.70 — still 25% below the January 2026 IPO price of €25 and roughly 45% off the 52-week high of €33.81. The 50-day moving average sits at €21.90, a level that now stands about 15% above the current quote.
At about 28 times earnings, CSG trades well under the sector average P/E of roughly 34 — a discount that reflects the lingering distrust from the short-seller episode. The new Ukrainian production line is a tangible step toward rebuilding credibility, and the next catalyst will likely be an official launch date for the facility. Technically, the €18.56–€17.56 zone represents a near-term support band. If that holds, the momentum from a strong earnings week may carry the stock higher. If it fails, the €15.24 level — just above the May 4 low — comes back into play.
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