Two competing narratives are playing out simultaneously at Commerzbank. On one side, UniCredit has secured regulatory clearance from BaFin and the European Central Bank to keep building its position, raising its economic stake to 47.5%. On the other, Commerzbank’s management is ripping up its old earnings targets and promising shareholders virtually all of the profits for the next three years – a clear signal it intends to remain independent.
The Italian lender’s expansion now enjoys full supervisory backing, yet Berlin remains intransigent. The German government, still holding around 12% of Commerzbank, has ruled out selling its stake. That political roadblock has kept the takeover saga in limbo for months, with neither side gaining a decisive upper hand.
Profit target raised, payout pledge unveiled
Commerzbank’s board is not waiting for the deadlock to break. It has lifted its 2026 net profit target to at least €3.4 billion, up from a previous goal of €3.2 billion. More importantly, for the 2026–2028 period the bank intends to distribute nearly 100% of net income – after deducting AT1 coupons – through dividends and share buybacks.
The message is unmistakable: Commerzbank sees a stronger future on its own. The new capital return ambitions are designed to underpin the “Momentum 2030” strategy, which includes cutting roughly 3,000 full-time roles by the end of the decade. Management argues that shareholders have already endorsed the plan.
Tender offer attracts little interest
UniCredit’s formal exchange offer, launched on 8 July, barely registered. According to Commerzbank, only a small portion of the shares tendered came from independent institutional or retail investors. The bank interprets the tepid response as a vote of confidence in its standalone strategy – though UniCredit continues to increase its economic exposure via derivatives and other instruments.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Rating agency Morningstar DBRS weighed in on 14 July for the first time, concluding that UniCredit’s investment in Commerzbank remains manageable from a credit perspective. The assessment provides some reassurance to investors worried about the Italian bank’s growing footprint: the ongoing stake-building does not, in the agency’s view, pose an immediate threat to Commerzbank’s own creditworthiness.
Stock holds near highs as two forces pull
Shares have taken the conflicting signals in stride. After closing Monday at €38.35, the stock edged up 0.86% on Tuesday to €38.68, moving within a whisker of its 52-week high of €38.85 set on 19 June. Over 30 days the shares have advanced 6.97%, while the 12-month gain stands at 34.31%. The current price sits 4.44% above the 50-day moving average of €37.03 and 12.19% above the 200-day average of €34.48.
The relative strength index – at 60.7 – indicates continued interest without overheating. Earlier in the week it had been at 58.3, leaving room for further upside. Year-to-date the stock is up 5.04%, reflecting a steady climb even as the takeover battle grinds on.
What comes next
The next catalyst is just weeks away. Commerzbank will report its second-quarter numbers on 6 August 2026. That will be the first real test of whether the higher profit forecast is a credible strategic target or merely a negotiating posture aimed at UniCredit.
For now, the stock is being pulled in two directions: regulatory approval that lets UniCredit inch toward control, and a management team that is betting big on autonomy with a payout promise that few German banks have ever matched. The coming months will show which force wins out.
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