Investor anxiety is mounting as Coinbase Global, Inc. prepares to report its quarterly results this week. The cryptocurrency exchange’s stock, having plummeted approximately 31% over the past month, enters a pivotal period that will test market confidence. All eyes are on Thursday’s report, with the key question being whether the current share price already reflects the anticipated downturn.
Diminished Expectations from Wall Street
Market analysts have set a low bar for the fourth quarter. The consensus forecast points to a dramatic 66% year-over-year drop in earnings, projecting just $1.15 per share. Revenue is also expected to contract, with estimates calling for a decline of nearly 19% to $1.85 billion.
This anticipated weakness is primarily driven by the company’s core trading operations:
* Transaction Revenue: Forecasts suggest a sharp fall of roughly 34% to $1.03 billion.
* Trading Volume: Estimates indicate volume could drop to $279 billion, a significant decrease from $439 billion in the same quarter last year.
The broader digital asset market’s decline since late January, a key factor in these projections, has directly pressured Coinbase’s business model. The price of Bitcoin, which recently touched its lowest level since the 2024 election, has weighed heavily on sentiment and trading fee income.
A Silver Lining in Recurring Revenue
Despite the gloomy trading outlook, one segment of the business shows notable resilience. The management’s strategic push to diversify away from pure transaction dependency is yielding results. Revenue from subscriptions and services is projected to rise by almost 18% to approximately $755 million.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Coinbase?
A standout within this category is stablecoin revenue, which analysts estimate could surge by over 60%. This growth in more predictable, recurring income streams provides a crucial buffer for the company during periods of extreme market volatility.
Analysts Adjust Targets Amid Uncertainty
In response to the challenging environment, prominent financial institutions have revised their outlooks. Investment firms BTIG and Citigroup have both significantly reduced their price targets for Coinbase shares. BTIG lowered its target to $340, while Citigroup adjusted its to $400.
Analysts cite persistently weak trading volumes alongside ongoing regulatory uncertainty as primary reasons for the adjustments. Key digital asset market structure legislation in the U.S. Senate is not expected to be resolved until well into 2026, prolonging a cloud of ambiguity over the industry.
A Low Bar for a Positive Surprise
Following a slight recovery to $167.25 in the previous session, the stock remains on unstable ground. The stage is now set for Thursday, February 12, after the market closes. With expectations already markedly subdued, the hurdle for a positive reaction is low. A stronger-than-forecast performance in subscription metrics or a reassuring outlook from management could offer the beleaguered shares some near-term relief.
Ad
Coinbase Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Coinbase Analysis from February 10 delivers the answer:
The latest Coinbase figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Coinbase investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from February 10.
Coinbase: Buy or sell? Read more here...
