A company that once promised investors hundreds of autonomous kitchen robots in the field by year-end is now targeting just 50. The dramatic scale-back at Circus SE caps a bruising summer for shareholders, with the stock shedding roughly two-thirds of its value in a single month.
The shares closed Friday at EUR 1.80, down 3.12 percent on the day and 66.25 percent lower than 30 days earlier. Technical indicators point to deeply oversold conditions, with the relative strength index sitting at 16.7. The market capitalization has shrunk to just under EUR 50 million.
A Guidance Wipeout That Reshaped Everything
The trouble began in mid-July. On July 16, Circus issued an ad-hoc announcement that slashed its 2026 revenue outlook from EUR 44–55 million to just EUR 5.2 million. The adjusted EBITDA forecast was also pushed deeper into the red, now expected at roughly minus EUR 17 million rather than the previously guided loss of EUR 6–8 million.
The company attributed the revision to a strategic decision to prioritize system reliability over rapid scaling, with planned deliveries pushed into 2027. Management said the focus would shift toward improving unit economics and building out a more robust ecosystem spanning supply chain and maintenance.
The market’s initial reaction was swift and severe. Between July 15 and 19, the stock lost approximately half its value, reportedly as word of the impending guidance cut leaked ahead of the official announcement. The newly reported reduction of the rollout target from 300 to 50 units confirms that the July revision was no minor adjustment but a fundamental restructuring of the company’s growth trajectory.
Analysts Scramble to Reprice
The sell-side response has been equally dramatic. Baader Bank’s Volker Bosse cut his price target by roughly 84 percent to EUR 3.00 on Wednesday, while maintaining a “Buy” rating. The scale of the reduction underscores how thoroughly the new guidance has upended the previous valuation framework — even with a positive view on the business model, the collapsed revenue base leaves little room for the growth rates previously baked into the numbers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Circus?
Montega had already downgraded the stock from “Buy” to “Hold” on July 20, citing operating forecasts for the current year that fell well short of original expectations. Other houses had trimmed targets earlier in the month, with one cutting its price objective to EUR 8.40 and another maintaining a speculative buy recommendation at the same level while flagging ecosystem challenges alongside long-term potential from the systems’ unit economics. Those assessments, however, predate the official guidance cut and no longer reflect current conditions.
Insider Buying and a Leadership Shuffle
Amid the sell-off, board member Dr. Jan-Christian Heins purchased shares on July 20 in a transaction reported under insider trading rules. Such buys are often read as a confidence signal, though they have done little to alter the fundamental repricing underway.
Leadership is also changing. A new co-CEO and CFO — an expert drawn from the aviation and automotive industries, though not yet named publicly — is stepping in, succeeding Fabian Becker, who moves to the supervisory board of subsidiary Circus Defence SE.
Expansion Continues Despite the Turmoil
Not everything in recent weeks has been negative. Early July brought the final closing of the acquisition of Belgian food-robotics firm Alberts, financed through the issuance of 1.2 million new shares plus a milestone-dependent cash component of EUR 350,000. Circus also secured ECAS certification for its “CA-1 Series 4” kitchen system in the United Arab Emirates, claiming to be the first approved provider of autonomous food robotics in the region, with a commercial launch in Abu Dhabi slated for September. Mid-July reports also flagged the operational start of a cooperation with Ukrainian ground troops deploying autonomous supply systems in the field.
These bright spots, however, do little to offset the core problem. Preliminary 2025 figures, released in late May, showed revenue rising to EUR 1.5 million from EUR 0.25 million a year earlier — but with an adjusted EBITDA loss of EUR 15.3 million. The newly guided 2026 numbers sit in a similar range, despite the company having previously projected revenue many times higher.
Two Dates That Could Define the Next Chapter
Investors now face two key markers. The annual general meeting is scheduled for August 20 (one source cites August 16), to be held virtually, followed by second-quarter results due September 2. Both events should reveal whether the promised pivot toward unit economics and scalability is taking hold — or whether further revisions lie ahead. Until then, the stock remains a highly speculative proposition, its valuation almost entirely dependent on execution of a plan that has already been drastically scaled back.
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