Novo Nordisk enters a pivotal week with its stock recovering from a March trough but still trading 45% below its 52‑week peak. At €38.74, the shares have clawed back roughly 27% from the lows, yet remain 13.29% lower year‑to‑date. The coming days will test whether a cluster of positive catalysts – EU regulatory backing for the first oral GLP‑1 weight‑loss pill, a major liver‑disease data readout, and an ongoing buyback – can override a fresh safety concern linked to Wegovy’s injectable form.
The European Medicines Agency on 23 May recommended approval of Wegovy 25 mg tablets, making them the first oral GLP‑1 medicine cleared for weight management in Europe. The recommendation rests on a 64‑week trial in which patients lost an average of 16.6% of body weight, compared with 2.7% on placebo; 76% shed at least 5%. The final go‑ahead now rests with the European Commission, and Novo expects to launch the pill outside the United States in the second half of 2026. That timeline puts it behind Eli Lilly’s oral competitor Foundayo, which received US Food and Drug Administration clearance in April and carries a convenience advantage – it can be taken without regard to meals, whereas the Wegovy tablet requires a 30‑minute pre‑meal fast.
The oral formulation has already gathered momentum in the US, where it generated around 1.3 million prescriptions in its first three months. Combined with the broader obesity portfolio, the division helped drive first‑quarter revenue up 32% on a currency‑adjusted basis to 96.8 billion Danish kroner (approximately $15.2 billion). Novo raised its financial outlook in April, reflecting confidence in the portfolio’s trajectory.
Yet a study published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology threatens to cast a shadow over the Wegovy brand. Researchers mining the FDA adverse‑event database through December 2024 found that the signal for ischaemic optic neuropathy (ION) – a rare vascular disorder of the optic nerve sometimes called an “eye stroke” – was 75 times higher than expected among Wegovy users. In men the relative risk soared to 116 times. A total of 28 ION cases were identified. No cases were recorded for Rybelsus, the oral semaglutide version used in diabetes. The scientists hypothesise that blood‑pressure swings or nervous‑system instability linked to Wegovy’s rapid physiological effects may be responsible, especially at higher doses.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Investors will weigh that safety signal alongside the larger opportunity in metabolic liver disease. Novo is presenting new data from the phase 3 ESSENCE programme at the EASL congress in Barcelona, running from 27 to 30 May. MASH (metabolic dysfunction‑associated steatohepatitis) is the advanced form of fatty‑liver disease and affects an estimated 250 million people worldwide. Semaglutide at 2.4 mg has already been shown to reduce liver inflammation and fibrosis in MASH patients. The upcoming presentations will include fresh safety data reinforcing the liver profile, as well as subgroup analyses in Japanese patients and post‑menopausal women – a critical detail given that nine out of ten MASH cases globally go undiagnosed. A broad benefit would strengthen the commercial case for expanding semaglutide into liver medicine.
The pipeline narrative continues at next week’s American Diabetes Association congress in New Orleans, where Novo holds an R&D investor event on 7 June. Confirmed on the agenda is a presentation on CagriSema, examining its effects on appetite and functional brain activity in people with overweight and obesity. This aligns with the company’s push to build a franchise beyond Wegovy.
Behind the scenes, Novo is returning capital to shareholders through a buyback programme of up to 15 billion kroner, launched 4 February 2026. A dedicated tranche for B‑shares worth up to 11.2 billion kroner runs from 6 May 2026 to 1 February 2027. As of 13 May, Novo had repurchased 15,999,028 B‑shares at an average price of 260.62 kroner each, for a total transaction value of 4.17 billion kroner. The company now holds 33,184,329 of its own B‑shares, equivalent to 0.7% of total share capital. While the buyback provides a floor, it is unlikely to be the primary driver of share‑price momentum.
Technically, the stock has stabilised: it trades 11.52% above its 50‑day moving average but remains 8.17% below the 200‑day line, indicating that the recovery has yet to fully reverse the earlier downtrend. The next concrete milestones are the half‑year results on 5 August and a capital markets day on 21 September. For now, the market must digest a rare safety warning at a time when regulatory wins, clinical data, and a buyback are all converging – a mixture that will likely define Novo Nordisk’s trajectory through the summer.
Ad
Novo Nordisk Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Novo Nordisk Analysis from May 24 delivers the answer:
The latest Novo Nordisk figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Novo Nordisk investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from May 24.
Novo Nordisk: Buy or sell? Read more here...
