Carnival has now beaten analyst expectations for eleven consecutive quarters, each time by at least nine percent. The cruise operator’s next set of quarterly results is due in late June, and a growing number of institutional investors are betting the run will continue. Pinebridge Investments picked up nearly 465,000 shares in the fourth quarter for around $14.2 million, while CIBC Asset Management boosted its stake by almost 74 percent. Havemeyer Place LP opened a fresh position with roughly 82,000 shares. In total, 512 institutional buyers added to their holdings, outweighing the 483 that trimmed positions.
The confidence is underpinned by record booking numbers. Some 85 percent of capacity for the current year is already sold out, and customer deposits have surged to nearly $8 billion — up about 10 percent from a year ago. Carnival’s first-quarter revenue for 2026 hit a record $6.2 billion, with the adjusted operating result in the billions. Forward pricing continues to climb, and annual bookings are running 10 percent ahead of the prior year’s pace.
Analysts remain broadly bullish. Loop Capital initiated coverage on June 1 with a buy rating and a $36 price target, forecasting 2026 EBITDA of $7.17 billion and 2027 EBITDA of $7.71 billion. A second analyst reaffirmed a buy on June 5, citing strong bookings, higher onboard passenger spending, and — notably — lower fuel costs as potential tailwinds for the second quarter. The consensus among 21 analysts is a buy, with an average price target of $34.59, implying roughly 26 percent upside from the current share price of $27.46.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Carnival?
Yet fuel costs are the marquee risk. Carnival now expects that recent price movements will inflate its fuel bill by more than $500 million relative to its December forecast. A 10 percent swing per ton would alter adjusted net income by $160 million for the remainder of the year. While higher revenues are expected to lift earnings by roughly $150 million, that gain only partially offsets the energy cost pressure. The result is a stock that gained 1.67 percent in the session but remains down 0.65 percent over the past week — a trading pattern that analysts describe as choppy.
On the corporate side, management has been tidying up the legal structure. In early May, Carnival merged its dual stock exchange structure, bringing its British subsidiary directly under the Carnival Corporation Ltd. umbrella. The move simplifies the company’s legal framework, though it has not yet acted as a catalyst for the share price.
The immediate calendar offers little in the way of fresh triggers. No quarterly earnings or management updates are scheduled before the Q2 release, which ends this week. Analysts currently project a 6 percent revenue increase for the quarter, with earnings per share of $0.34 — nearly flat year-over-year. A sustainable rally, many observers argue, will depend on energy costs trending lower. Only then can the full weight of the record order book translate into bottom-line growth.
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