The electric vehicle landscape has a new definitive leader, but the market’s reaction tells a more complex story. BYD has cemented its position ahead of Tesla with record-breaking 2025 delivery figures, yet its share price performance and notable trading activity reveal a narrative of caution amidst operational triumph.
Operational Dominance and Market Share Gains
The final sales data for 2025 underscores a significant power shift. BYD delivered approximately 2.26 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs), representing a 28% year-over-year increase. This performance starkly contrasts with Tesla’s results; the U.S. automaker reported 1.64 million deliveries for the period, marking a decline of 9–10%.
The divergence became even more pronounced in the fourth quarter. Tesla’s deliveries fell by 15–16% to around 418,000 units, while BYD maintained its growth trajectory.
Strategic Product Evolution Meets Regulation
In a strategic move aligning with regulatory changes, BYD has launched updated versions of its plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The refreshed models—the Qin PLUS DM-i, Qin L DM-i, Seal 05 DM-i, and Seal 06 DM-i—feature a critical upgrade: a 26.6 kWh Blade battery.
This enhancement enables a pure electric range of 210 km (CLTC standard) and a total combined range of 2,110 km. The update is strategically timed ahead of stricter Chinese policy. Starting in 2026, vehicles require a minimum 100 km electric range to qualify for tax incentives, a substantial increase from the previous 43 km threshold. BYD’s new PHEVs are positioned squarely within this subsidized segment.
Share Price Pressure and Institutional Activity
Despite these fundamental strengths, BYD’s equity has faced headwinds. Shares in Hong Kong recently closed weaker at HK$95.30. In the U.S. over-the-counter market, the BYDDF ticker fell 3.40% to $12.23.
Adding to the near-term technical pressure, a significant bearish block trade was recorded yesterday. A total of 2.8 million shares changed hands at HK$95.30, amounting to HK$266.84 million in volume, signaling notable institutional selling pressure.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
Export Markets Showcase Competitive Strength
BYD’s expansion is not confined to its home market. The company is making decisive inroads into regions traditionally dominated by Western automakers:
- Australia: In December 2025, the BYD Sealion 7 was the top-selling EV with 2,546 deliveries, outperforming the Tesla Model Y (1,998 units).
- Germany: Sales in this key European market surged by 800% in 2025 to 23,306 vehicles. Over the same period, Tesla registrations fell by 50% to 19,390 units.
- United Kingdom: BYD also led here, with 51,422 new registrations compared to Tesla’s 45,513.
These figures demonstrate that BYD’s competitive advantage is translating successfully on a global scale.
Valuation Presents a Contradiction
The current valuation picture is mixed. Trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.32, BYD’s shares command a premium above the industry average of 18.59. However, discounted cash flow models suggest potential undervaluation, calculating a fair value of HK$115.26—roughly 17% above the recent price.
This creates a dichotomy for investors weighing the company’s prospects:
The Bull Case:
* Record BEV sales and clear market leadership.
* Successful product adaptation to evolving regulatory incentives.
* Powerful growth momentum in major international export markets.
The Bear Case:
* Technical weakness following recent price corrections.
* Visible institutional selling pressure, as evidenced by large block trades.
The stock appears to be in a consolidation phase, where robust fundamentals are colliding with a demanding valuation. The key question for BYD’s future share performance will be its ability to sustain the current growth tempo and confirm margin strength in the coming quarters.
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