BYD has overtaken Tesla in global battery-electric vehicle deliveries for the first half of 2026, cementing its position as the world’s top EV maker. On July 8, the Chinese automaker celebrated the production of its 17 millionth new-energy vehicle at its Xi’an plant — a Seal 08, its new flagship electric sedan. That milestone capped a strong June, during which BYD sold 403,472 vehicles, a 5.46% year-on-year increase, and brought first-half total sales to 1,808,511 units. The second quarter alone accounted for 1,108,048 deliveries, a 58.19% sequential jump.
Yet the stock has not fully reflected this operational strength. Shares were trading around €9.44 to €9.48 in recent sessions, up about 1.74% on the day, but still nursing a year-to-date loss of roughly 13%. From the 52-week high of €14.80, the equity remains 36% below that peak. The relative strength index stands at 53.9, indicating a neutral posture after a bounce from the June 30 low of €8.03 — a 17.5% recovery.
Export engine revs as home market sputters
The export business has become BYD’s primary growth driver. International sales reached 174,897 vehicles in June, nearly doubling from a year earlier, and totaled 789,367 units in the first half. Overseas deliveries now account for more than 40% of the group’s overall volume. In Europe, five major Chinese automakers led by BYD sold 138,410 vehicles in May, achieving a 12.0% market share and, for the first time, overtaking Japanese brands, which slipped to 11.3%.
That success comes despite steep European Union tariffs on Chinese EVs, which have climbed to as high as 45.3%. The price advantage BYD once enjoyed is shrinking, but the company is nonetheless pressing into the premium segment. On July 9, it will unveil the Denza Z electric sports car at the Goodwood Festival of Speed in the UK, positioning it squarely against the Porsche 911. The model features the DiSus suspension system and the latest blade battery technology.
BYD’s vertical integration remains a key competitive edge. Its in-house semiconductor arm has now shipped over 100 million automotive-grade BMS (battery management system) chips, monitoring more than 1.6 billion battery cells with an accuracy deviation of under three millivolts. The second-generation blade battery, debuting in the Seal 08, supports an 800-volt architecture and can add 400 kilometers of range in just five minutes of charging. To make that capability widely available, BYD aims to complete 20,000 proprietary fast-charging stations across China by the end of 2026.
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Domestic demand darkens the outlook
While the export narrative glows, the home front is showing strain. June retail sales of passenger cars in China collapsed 23.2% year on year, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline. The market penetration of new-energy vehicles, however, climbed to 62.8%, suggesting that the overall pie is shrinking even as BYD’s share of it grows. The company still sold 224,478 vehicles through private channels in China during June, but the structural weakness is undeniable.
The International Monetary Fund recently cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3%, adding to the macroeconomic headwinds. Investors worry that an escalating price war in China will squeeze margins, especially as EU tariffs erode the cost advantage abroad. The stock’s 200-day moving average at €10.72 presents a key resistance level on the upside, while holding above the €8.03 low is seen as critical to maintaining the recent recovery.
Three catalysts for the second half
The direction of BYD’s shares over the coming months will hinge on a handful of developments: the market reception of the Denza Z in Europe starting July 9, progress on the fast-charging network installation, and any changes to EU tariff policy or retaliatory trade measures from Beijing. As long as export growth holds above 60%, the global expansion story remains intact. But if domestic demand fails to stabilize by the third quarter, the current market capitalization of €85 billion could face additional pressure.
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