A surge in crude prices driven by Middle East tensions and worries about Russian refinery disruptions and diesel supplies gave energy stocks a firm bid on Friday, with Brent climbing 3.7% according to Reuters. BP’s shares rose 3.65% on the day and have now gained 50% since the start of the year.
The stock was changing hands at β¬7.39 in European trading, just 0.3% below the 52-week high of β¬7.42 it had set only recently. In the following session the shares gave back some ground, slipping 1.1% to β¬7.31 β still only 1.4% shy of that peak.
Refining margins nearly double
Behind the share-price strength sits a marked improvement in the company’s downstream business. In its third-quarter 2026 trading update, BP put its indicative refining margin at $46.70 a barrel, up sharply from $29.60 in the second quarter. The company expects realised refining margins to deliver a positive result of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion versus the prior quarter, while gas marketing and trading are also seen contributing significantly more, according to Reuters.
Those gains come alongside a hefty charge elsewhere. BP has flagged post-tax impairments of $3.0 billion to $4.5 billion, concentrated in its gas and low-carbon energy division.
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Debt forecast slashed
The cash flowing in from processing is feeding straight through to the balance sheet. BP guided net debt at the end of the third quarter to between $13.5 billion and $14.5 billion, a steep drop from $22.3 billion at the end of June 2026.
Analysts had already been lifting their price targets ahead of the numbers, adjusting valuations in anticipation of the third-quarter figures. Several executives have been adding to their holdings as well: CFO Kate Thomson and fellow executives Gordon Birrell, Sam Skerry and Michael Sosso all acquired additional shares through the company’s UK ShareMatch employee plan.
What to watch
BP will publish its full third-quarter report on 30 October 2026, giving investors the first clear picture of how far the stronger margins and production conditions have offset the impairment charges. Attention is also turning to CEO Meg O’Neill, who has promised an updated strategic plan for the group in December.
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