The stock of Black Rifle Coffee Company continues to face significant headwinds. Trading near the bottom of its annual range, the share price closed a recent session at approximately $1.24, marking a single-day decline of 1.98%. Over a broader two-week period, the equity has retreated 2.76%, indicating persistent selling pressure in the near term.
Financial Performance: Revenue Gains Offset by Losses
The company’s second-quarter 2025 results, reported in August, presented a contradictory picture. While net sales climbed 6.5% year-over-year to $94.8 million, surpassing analyst estimates, profitability remained elusive. This growth was primarily fueled by a 14.1% surge in the wholesale segment, which reached $61.3 million.
However, this positive momentum was not universal. The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel underperformed, with revenues falling 7.8% to $27.6 million. Management attributed this drop to challenges in customer acquisition and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
Despite the top-line increase, the bottom line deteriorated. The net loss expanded to $14.5 million, a significant increase from the $13.1 million loss in Q2 2024. Adjusted EBITDA also contracted, dropping by $5.1 million to $2.4 million. On a per-share basis, the company reported a loss of $0.07, missing the consensus estimate of a $0.03 loss. Following the earnings release, the stock price fell 10.91% during regular trading.
Technical and Trading Perspective
From a chart perspective, the outlook appears weak. The share price has managed to close higher on only 13 of the last 30 trading days, with short-term volatility measured at 3.24%. Although the stock has recovered 3.78% from its pivot low on November 20, the overarching technical structure remains bearish, with several key indicators pointing downward.
The stock is currently trading near the lower bound of its 52-week range of $1.17 to $3.34.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Black Rifle Coffee?
Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
Coverage from market researchers reveals a divided stance. Five analysts currently provide ratings on the stock: one recommends selling, two advise holding, and two suggest buying. The consensus price target among them stands at $2.50, with a range from $2.00 to $3.00.
Notably, some financial models project a much more subdued path. Forecasts for the end of 2025 suggest a narrow trading band between $1.23 and $1.24 per share, with a further decline to $1.23 projected for January 10, 2026.
Management’s Outlook and Strategic Initiatives
The company’s leadership has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 guidance. Projections call for net revenue between $395 million and $425 million, gross margins of 35% to 37%, and Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $20 million to $30 million.
Management anticipates improved margins in the second half of the year, driven by an expanded presence in Food, Drug, and Mass (FDM) retail channels and various productivity initiatives. The company has committed to cost savings totaling $8 million to $10 million.
Key Distribution Metrics:
* Packaged Coffee: Achieved an All Commodity Volume (ACV) of 56.6% in Q2 2025, an increase of 14.9 percentage points.
* Ready-to-Drink (RTD): ACV rose 6.1 points to 53.5%.
* Black Rifle Energy: Held approximately 23% ACV and was distributed in about 15,200 retail locations as of June 2025.
In summary, while Black Rifle Coffee demonstrates progress in wholesale distribution and market penetration, its core challenge—translating revenue growth into consistent profitability—remains unresolved. Insider sentiment is currently viewed as neutral.
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